From rooftop pools to yoga studios, condo developers across Canada are doubling down on amenities to stand out in a crowded market. But are buyers really choosing homes based on the extras?

Taylor Musseau, partner at MLA Okanagan, said amenities help round out the lifestyle pitch for Stober Group’s new two-building development in Kelowna, where she is handling sales and marketing.

The development dubbed Movala, in Kelowna’s sought-after South Pandosy area, includes nearly an acre of shared spaces. Residents will have access to a pool, hot tub, al fresco dining areas, gardens, a gym, yoga room, cabanas, a bocce ball lawn, games room, guest suite and an indoor “great room” designed for entertaining. 

“It’s tailored to four-seasons living here,” Musseau said.

The two-building project totals 325 homes, with the first now welcoming residents and the second set to be completed next year. Musseau said building one is nearly sold out.

An outdoor dining area at Movala (photo: Stober Group)

Beyond the amenities, Movala’s draw is rooted in a mix of design, price and location. 

The development sits near a popular Okanagan beach. One-bedrooms start in the mid-$400,000s, while two-bed, two-bath homes are priced around $580,000, figures Musseau describes as “good value” for comparable constructions in the area.

She said the extra amenities haven’t added a lot of extra expense for residents because the costs are spread out amongst so many homeowners, noting fees come in at just under 50 cents a square foot.

After an initial marketing push targeting empty nesters and downsizers, the team has shifted its focus to younger buyers and families. 

“We’re looking more at young professionals, young couples, people who want to live here full-time,” she said.

Can buyers have it all right now?

Condo buyers in Vancouver are sitting in a strong position, said Adil Dinani of Royal LePage West Real Estate Services. 

“We’re in a buyer’s market for most segments right now, especially condominiums,” he said. “Buyers have selection and they have time. It’s a very unique time in the market. We haven’t seen the stars align like this since pre-COVID.”

With roughly 17,000 active listings in Greater Vancouver, and about 40 per cent of them condos, buyers can afford to be choosy.

Price and location still drive decisions, Dinani said, but amenities are becoming a bigger part of the conversation.

“The amenity offering is important,” he notes, pointing to demand from active baby boomers looking for fitness facilities, pools and saunas in their buildings.

But while the lifestyle features attract attention, they also come with higher costs. “You might have a 1,200-square-foot two-bedroom and your maintenance fees could be almost 80 or 90 cents per square foot,” he said, which would total about $900 a month.

He adds that while some residents love the idea of a saltwater pool or concierge, he has learned that not everyone capitalizes on the amenities in their buildings after they move in.

Sometimes, it’s simple things like air conditioning that drive demand, he said.

“A lot of older buildings, even those built as recently as 2015, don’t have A/C,” Dinani said. “Now it’s near the top of buyers’ lists.”

Community as an offering

Jeff Brown, executive vice president of NorthStar Development, is behind an up-and-coming project in his hometown of Port Coquitlam.

NorthStar took the project over from a previous developer who had completed the basement level, and has redesigned the building to match today’s market demands, said Brown.

Wellness and social living is at the heart of the concept for the 102-unit project called Livy.

“The desire for community is something that’s been growing, particularly post-2020, when we were all isolated,” said Brown. “There’s a growing expectation, we feel, for a curated lifestyle, which offers wellness and shared spaces that foster connection and could lead you to meet your neighbours.”

The vision for the golf simulator at Livy.

Livy’s design features more than 10,000 square feet of amenities, including an expansive rooftop space, a virtual golf simulator and high-tech wellness areas. Among the most alluring features is a Nordic-style spa with hot and cold plunges.

He said their target is first-time buyers. Junior one-bedroom units are priced at $389,000 and range up to $739,900 for two-bedroom plus den units, according to Livy’s website.

Brown said an expertly-drafted design helped offset the costs of the “extras” for residents. The spa, he said, adds an extra six cents a month to the average condo fee.

“We were able to put our heads together and execute without spending frivolously,” he said. “There’s a bit of an art to it.”

Courtney Zwicker

Courtney Zwicker is a digital reporter and associate editor for REM. Based in Atlantic Canada, she has over a decade of experience covering daily business news.

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This week, the provincial government proposed to rebate the full eight per cent provincial portion of the HST for first-time buyers on new homes valued up to $1 million. 

The province’s proposal, which will be included in the 2025 Fall Economic Statement, would save first-time home buyers up to $80,000 off the cost of a new home when combined with existing provincial relief.

While homes valued up to $1 million would qualify for the full rebate, there will be partial rebates on a phased-in basis for homes valued up to $1.5 million. 

Combined with the federal government’s proposed removal of its five per cent portion of the HST, first-time buyers could save a further $50,000.

In a statement, Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) president Cathy Polan called the plan a “step in the right direction for the future of this province.”

She said this type of action “is exactly what we need to help young Ontarians and their families get a foot on the homeownership ladder.”

‘A drop in the bucket’

Evan Malach, a Toronto Realtor with Harvey Kalles Real Estate, specializes in working with first-time buyers, and says he sees the struggles people face as they pinch every penny to break into the market.

Malach says he welcomes action from political leaders to address the housing crunch, but does he think this new rebate would make a meaningful difference?

“In one sense, yes, and in another, it’s a drop in the bucket,” he told Real Estate Magazine. “It depends on where you’re looking.”

He sees some potential for the rebate to boost new condo sales, a market that’s at its lowest level in decades.  

“I think it remains to be seen how much this (rebate) will actually make any kind of difference. I think it’s a start, but there’s a lot more that could and should be done.”

Interest rates still hitting hard

Carl Gomez, chief economist and head of market analytics at CoStar, said he thinks the rebate could have a marginal impact, but not enough to make a big difference in overall affordability. 

“I don’t think it’s a silver bullet, per se,” he said.

He said in the metro regions, there is low inventory for homes under $1 million, except for small condos. 

“There is not that much supply out there for first-time buyers to open up the door,” he said. “But, it is a step.”

He said financing is a major part of the equation for first-time buyers, and mortgage rates are still a barrier.

“Your traditional five-year mortgage rate is still relatively high compared to where it was pre-pandemic,” he said, adding that rates are contributing to worse affordability conditions today than the historical average. 

While the Bank of Canada cut the key interest rate on Wednesday to 2.25 per cent, Gomez pointed out that the five-year Government of Canada bond yield, which is what fixed rates are based on, actually went up. 

“On the rate relief side, it’s still tough for those first-time buyers,” he said. “The borrowing environment is still the biggest factor that’s causing first-time buyers, and even investors, to wait on the sidelines.”

Courtney Zwicker

Courtney Zwicker is a digital reporter and associate editor for REM. Based in Atlantic Canada, she has over a decade of experience covering daily business news.

The post Ontario proposes tax rebate for first-time buyers, but is it enough? appeared first on REM.

Condo living means having a shared interest in the well-being of your community. For a prospective buyer, a licensed, responsible, and accountable professional whose focus is on protecting their assets and home should be an invaluable resource and support for condo living. 

For Realtors, having behind-the-scenes information can help instill trust in the process of owning a condominium and living in one. Insights into condominium management can be key to helping Realtors guide their clients toward informed and confident decisions.

The facts on condominium managers

Condominiums are like an ecosystem where elements of the community interact with each other and their physical environment. 

An essential role within this unique system is the condominium manager, a licensed professional who oversees the day-to-day operations of a condominium. Providing condominium management services is permitted only if the individual or business has a licence issued by the Condominium Management Regulatory Authority of Ontario (CMRAO).

The CMRAO is the regulatory body responsible for licensing and regulating these condominium managers and provider businesses under the Condominium Management Services Act, 2015 (or CMSA) and its regulations, including the Code of Ethics. Our mandate strengthens consumer protection by:

• Setting industry standards for education, experience, and ethical practices in the profession
• Making licensing and enforcement information publicly available, especially if it is in the consumers’ best interest
• Handling complaints and inquiries

Although our work is typically geared toward condominium managers, our impact reaches far beyond that, touching the lives of condo owners and residents, and prospective buyers.

Defining the role of a condominium manager

Buying a home is a big decision for any individual or family. For prospective buyers, a well-managed condominium community is an attractive option because of the professionalism and core competencies of the condominium manager. The manager’s essential role is dynamic and challenging, and also necessary, as outlined in legislation. Unlike building superintendents, condominium managers have legal and ethical responsibilities governed by two pieces of legislation: the Condominium Management Services Act, 2015 and the Condominium Act, 1998.

Currently, there are 4,730 active condominium managers and 391 condominium management companies licensed by the CMRAO to provide services in Ontario. 

From advising the condominium’s board of directors on their legal obligations to collecting common expenses and ensuring maintenance and repair of the property, condominium managers are trained to handle these responsibilities, and more, on behalf of the condominium corporation.

Their work directly affects the quality of life of the condominium community, and by extension, the confidence and trust of those living and investing in condos. A well-managed building can mean fewer surprises during transactions, informed decision-making, smoother transitions for new owners, and greater long-term stability.

It’s important to note that while condominium managers oversee the day-to-day operations of the condominium, there are limitations to their responsibilities. They are not decision makers; rather, they work for the condominium corporation and carry out decisions made by the board. 

Laying the professional groundwork

The process to become a condominium manager is clear-cut and thorough. As a regulator with responsibility for setting standards for our licensees, the CMRAO ensures that those entering the field are prepared to handle their duties.

There are three licence types issued by the CMRAO, each with its own qualifying education and experience requirements. Each one must be renewed annually. This renewal process is a key tool for maintaining oversight and keeping accurate and current information about each licence holder – an important aspect of protecting the public interest.

As part of the licence renewal process, individuals are required to answer a series of questions related to character and fiscal responsibility. Provider businesses must also answer the same questions for directors and officers of the corporation and also provide proof of Errors and Omissions and Fidelity insurance to renew the company’s licence. 

To obtain an entry-level licence, individuals must first successfully complete the mandatory Excellence in Condominium Management course. Limited Licence holders can graduate to a General Licence upon successful completion of all five courses in the Condominium Management Certificate program at Humber Polytechnic (offered in partnership with the CMRAO) and after accumulating at least two years of supervised work experience.

Continuous learning in an evolving sector

As we have seen over the years, developments in the real estate marketplace have changed and shaped the condominium sector. That is why the CMRAO decided to implement the Continuing Professional Education (CPE) program for General Licence holders to complete and report as part of their annual licence renewal.

Licensees are required to engage in learning activities that help them stay up to date with legislation, best practices, technology, and to maintain and improve their skills and professional competencies each year. 

Supporting managers and informing stakeholders

To help managers meet their legal, operational, and ethical responsibilities, the CMRAO provides a range of resources, including comprehensive and timely practice guides that have been developed in collaboration with subject matter experts within the industry. These materials clarify expectations, promote best practices, and support continuous learning.

Following the successful release of our first practice guide for condominium managers, Financial Management, we recently released Procurement and Contractor Oversight: A Practice Guide for Condominium Managers. This practice guide offers practical insights into budgets and contracts, transparency and clear communication, and professional and reliable service delivery.

Although these materials and many other resources offered on the CMRAO website are helpful to condominium managers, they can also be useful to stakeholders. Understanding the role and responsibilities of a condominium manager helps adjust expectations for management services and highlights the value that the profession brings to a condo community.

Ultimately, condominium communities, like any ecosystem, thrive when managed well. Through licensing, education, and resources like our practice guides, the CMRAO is helping to build a more transparent, accountable, and professional condominium management sector. We invite real estate professionals to explore our work, share our resources, and join us in promoting thriving condominium communities across Ontario.

Shanna Callaghan

Shanna is a strategic communications professional with a diverse background in science and corporate communications. She earned her Bachelor of Science from the University of Guelph, and a Corporate Communications Graduate Certificate from Seneca Polytechnic. Shanna is passionate about storytelling and using a range of communications channels to reach targeted audiences.

The post Help condo buyers build confidence by learning about this critical role appeared first on REM.

The shadow market consists of both presale condo units that are available before the building has been constructed, and the units that are leftover from the presale period but are still not listed on the MLS.

“(Presale inventory) doesn’t get picked up in the real estate boards’ monthly analysis,” Vancouver Realtor Steve Saretsky told Real Estate Magazine. “There’s never any discussion that the preconstruction market also has all-time record high inventory, and none of that gets tracked publicly.”

He said that the large amount of shadow inventory is putting more pressure on prices and is straining developers, and predicts housing starts will continue to fall off aggressively since developers aren’t selling the inventory they already have. 

This is a fairly new phenomenon, according to Saretsky, because condos used to sell out very quickly in the presale period due to a strong bull market and the presence of investors. Now, investors have fled the market, and most buyers are end users who are less interested in the small condos on offer, meaning many developers can’t sell all their units before the building is complete and are left with shadow inventory.

“(The shadow market has) never really been a conversation,” Saretsky said. “I think it matters.”

Developers holding back inventory

Toronto Realtor Tom Storey told REM that typically a developer won’t list their inventory on the MLS because they don’t want to overwhelm the market and compete with themselves, or make previous buyers aware that they’re now offering a discounted price on their units. Instead, they’ll list just a handful of units so buyers know they exist, but often buyers will have to find out about the full extent of shadow inventory through their Realtor.

The problem is that this glut of presale inventory hasn’t been competitive with the already extensive amount of resale inventory on the market due to its higher price, according to Saretsky and Storey.

That makes the shadow inventory a hard sell for developers,, and some have had to offer big discounts to get it moving.

Storey said there was a one-day flash sale in Surrey, B.C., where the developer of one building took 25 per cent off all of their remaining inventory, and it sold out in one day. Even with the new Liberal federal government axing the GST for first-time homebuyers, resale condos are still cheaper and attracting most of the buyers, according to Storey.

Storey said much of the shadow inventory skews to more luxurious, large units that may appeal to downsizers who can wait a few years before moving in, rather than more budget-minded buyers who usually want a place that is move-in ready immediately.

He estimated based on data from Urbanation that there are roughly 2,500 shadow inventory units in the GTA that are not listed on the MLS, compared to about 7,000 listed resale units.

“It’s nowhere near the MLS numbers, but it’s not nothing,” Storey said. “It’s building.”

Market pressures forcing new sales tactics

Vancouver Realtor Hasan Juma told REM that his city will likely have 3,500 shadow inventory units by the end of 2025, compared to about 10,000 unsold resale listings. That’s according to data from real estate agency Rennie.

He said that developers may begin to change their sales habits due to growing shadow inventory. Typically, they might try to sell up to 70 per cent of their units in presale to secure funding to build, then try to sell the rest later at a higher price. Now that they’re not selling those leftover units, they may not be as willing to keep them for later as they have been before.

“A lot of developers have been burned in that process,” Juma said. “It’s probably going to change how they do that moving forward.”

Juma said that a lot of resale inventory now has barely been lived in, so shadow inventory has a hard time competing with it given its main advantage is it is new.

In all, the Realtors say that shadow inventory only exacerbates the current condo crisis, though Juma noted that most industry experts factor in shadow inventory when talking about the situation. 

“The general public … don’t know the full scope of how big and how great the amount of supply is,” Juma said. “Buyers have a good amount of options.”

Eric Stober

Eric Stober has over 10 years experience as a journalist and writer at publications big and small, including Global News, Toronto Life, Post City Magazine, Greencamp.com, the Toronto Star and The Grid.

The post Realtors warn of ‘shadow’ condo inventory building in major cities appeared first on REM.

Bill 16 in Quebec is primarily known for its significant overhaul to condominium law, impacting almost every aspect of divided co-ownership in the province. The goal is to improve condo management, increase transparency, and ensure adequate funding for building maintenance and repairs.

In a news release issued July 31, the association welcomed the final regulation completing Bill 16, which is set to take effect Aug. 14. But it cautioned that aspects of the law, particularly the timing of required documentation, could leave buyers without crucial information at the moment they make an offer.

Key information not required upfront

The regulation requires sellers to provide buyers with a certificate from the syndicate of co-owners. This document outlines financial details, major work, insurance, legal matters, and amendments to the co-ownership declaration.

However, QPAREB says that under current interpretations, the certificate may only be available after a buyer submits a promise to purchase.

“This constraint would deprive sellers of useful information for setting their selling price and buyers of essential information when making their offer,” the release states.

The association adds that real estate brokers must have full access to this information before their clients make legal or financial commitments.

“Real estate brokers must also have all the information they need to fulfill their duties of verification, disclosure, information, and advice to their clients,” said Nathalie Bégin, chair of QPAREB’s real estate brokerage practice committee.

Buyers and sellers at risk for added stress, says association

According to the current wording and interpretation, a buyer will have to submit a promise to purchase for a condominium without having all the information at hand or the sound advice of their broker, since the syndicate’s certificate will not be immediately available, says the association.

“For the seller, this means that disclosing the certificate to the buyer could, in many cases, force the reopening of negotiations even after the promise to purchase has been accepted,” reads the release.

“In addition, the sale price may prove to be too high if it does not take into account important factors contained in the certificate, such as work to be done, special assessments, etc. This situation will make the transaction even more stressful for many buyers and sellers.”

RIS form may be left in limbo

QPAREB is also urging the government to clarify how the RIS (Request for Information to the Syndicate) will fit into the revised legal framework. The RIS is widely used by brokers to gather key property details in advance of a sale.

“The RIS is a tool that is recognized, appreciated, and used by the vast majority of real estate brokers and their buyer clients to obtain relevant information prior to a transaction. Its future in the revised regulatory context remains uncertain, which could create confusion in the field,” said Bégin.

The association’s requests

The QPAREB is asking the government to decide on:

• The possibility for sellers to obtain the syndicate’s certificate before even putting their condominium on the market

• The harmonization between the RIS and the new certificate

The post Quebec condo reform a step forward, but brokers want adjustments appeared first on REM.

A report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation in June found that condominium apartment sales in Toronto have dropped 75 per cent from 2022 to the first quarter of 2025. In Vancouver, condo sales have dropped 37 per cent for the same period, according to the report.

Condos built to invest in – not to live in

Meanwhile, a report from data firm CoStar Group found that Canada’s inventory of condos has risen 400 per cent over the last three years. Carl Gomez, CoStar’s chief economist and author of the report, told Real Estate Magazine that much of the inventory is smaller units that were primarily built for investors.

“Those condo units aren’t designed for people to live in,” Gomez said. “They’re basically more of a hedge, get an investor in.”

However, investors have now fled both the Toronto and Vancouver markets due to higher interest rates than during the pandemic, which have now made units unaffordable. Gomez said either prices will have to come down or units will have to be made bigger in order to start moving the inventory, a pivot that won’t be an easy pill for developers to swallow as both will eat into their profits.

It may be necessary, though, given they are currently bleeding capital, according to Gomez. CMHC’s report found that investors face as much as a six per cent capital loss on pre-construction purchases concluded in 2024 in Toronto, and project cancellations have gone up five times in the city since 2022. In Vancouver, cancellations have gone up 10 times in the same time frame, according to the report.

Risk was overlooked, says Toronto Realtor

Toronto real estate agent Christopher Bibby told REM that the condo market really began to unravel in 2022, after interest rates went up.

“The writing’s on the wall now,” he said. “Prices have started to come down.”

CMHC’s report says prices have gone down 13.4 per cent in Toronto between 2022 and the first quarter of 2025, and 2.7 per cent in Vancouver. Bibby said the price erosion over the past two months has been the fastest and steepest he’s ever seen in the more than 20 years he’s been in the business, but it has been a stimulus for transactions to start finalizing after being stuck.

Bibby said that when interest rates were low, pre-construction prices were more than the resale value because there was a belief that prices would keep going up, which turned out not to be true. Add to that inflation, which has raised the cost of materials, as well as higher development fees and the inability to raise rents to meet higher costs, and condos are not as profitable a business as they once were.

Bibby felt back in 2021 that the market had hit its peak, but he said sellers didn’t want to believe that prices would eventually come down. At the time he felt it was a risky business venture, and he is not surprised about the current situation.

“People weren’t assessing what they were buying,” he said. “There was this belief the market would only go one way.”

A ‘classic bubble’

In Vancouver, Realtor Steve Saretsky told REM that what led to this situation was 20 years of a bull market.

“It’s kind of like a classic bubble,” he said. “It’s just all unraveling on itself.”

When there was high demand and interest rates were low, there was a speculation frenzy, he said. Now the market is experiencing the hangover after the party, with a record number of units seeing completion at exactly the wrong time.

CMHC’s report says that a record high of 25,572 condos were completed in Toronto in 2024, while 12,442 were done in Vancouver. Toronto now has 14 times more months of inventory than it did in 2022, according to the report, and it would take 58 months to sell that current stock at the current rate of sale. That means that developers will now put a hold on new build starts, which will sow the seeds for the next crisis down the line in three to four years, when supply won’t meet demand, according to Saretsky.

He sees the current condo bust as a natural market correction, though, after about 20 years of no price correction. 

“When you have 20 years of rising home prices basically every year, it creates complacency,” Saretsky said. “People think they can’t lose money in real estate. It creates malinvestment.”

Eric Stober

Eric Stober has over 10 years experience as a journalist and writer at publications big and small, including Global News, Toronto Life, Post City Magazine, Greencamp.com, the Toronto Star and The Grid.

The post Why Canada’s condo market is unraveling appeared first on REM.

Sales of new, resale, and pre-construction units have plunged since mid-2022, marking a stark shift from the boom period driven by low interest rates and investment.

By the first quarter of 2025, condo apartment sales had dropped by a staggering 75 per cent in Toronto and 37 per cent in Vancouver compared to mid-2022 levels, reads the report.

The sharp pullback comes amid rising borrowing costs and weakened demand from both end-users and investors, who now face higher mortgage payments and lower expected returns.

Soaring supply

Developers continued building even as the market turned. A record 25,572 units were completed in Toronto in 2024, along with 12,442 in Vancouver. 

In Toronto, the months of inventory for pre-construction condos in Q1 of 2025 were more than 14 times higher than in 2022. It would take 58 months to sell the available stock at the current rate of sales, according to CMHC.

This oversupply is putting sustained pressure on prices. Between 2022 and Q1 2025, average resale condo prices fell 13.4 per cent in Toronto and 2.7 per cent in Vancouver. 

Many investors who bought during the boom now face declining valuations and narrowing margins.

Investors under pressure

“High interest rates, which increase carrying costs, combined with stagnant price growth that limits equity building, have significantly reduced potential returns for investors,” said CMHC.

Based on prices of recently occupied new condo and similar units in the resale market, condo investors in Toronto potentially face up to 6 per cent in capital losses on pre-construction purchases concluded in 2024. 

“It is also more difficult for them to access financing when the value of their condo units decreases between the pre-construction purchase and closing,” said CMHC.

New investors renting out their units are also negatively affected. Carrying costs in Toronto and Vancouver have grown 24% and 29%, respectively, while average rents have only increased by 15% and 12% since 2022.

Wave of cancellations and conversions

In Toronto, 55 per cent of pre-construction units remained unsold in Q1 2025. In response, project cancellations have surged, rising fivefold in Toronto and tenfold in Vancouver since 2022.

This level of unsold units presents a significant challenge for developers seeking funding for their projects. Lenders typically require a pre-sale threshold of 70% before releasing funds.

“The challenge in funding condo projects has led to some developers shifting to rental unit construction, where purpose-built rental unit construction programs offer potential financing,” said CMHC. 

A temporary break for consumers

Growing condo inventories have led to a reduction in prices, and also lower rents as more owners compete for rental cashflows.

These shifts present relief for buyers and renters in the most expensive cities in the country. However, they do so at the cost of discouraging new construction and fueling underlying housing shortages in the future.

The condo projects cancelled today mean fewer housing completions in the future, notes CMHC.

“The relief for buyers and renters is temporary with future housing shortages compounded.”

Courtney Zwicker

Courtney Zwicker is a digital reporter and associate editor for REM. Based in Atlantic Canada, she has over a decade of experience covering daily business news.

The post Sales and prices fall as condo glut hits Toronto and Vancouver: CMHC appeared first on REM.

According to a new report by Rishi Sondhi, economist at TD Economics, resale condo prices in the GTA are projected to fall by about 10 per cent in 2025 alone—part of a broader correction that could leave prices down as much as 15 to 20 per cent from their Q3 2023 peak by year-end.

“Demand conditions have weakened materially,” Sondhi notes, pushing TD to revise its already bearish forecast even further. And it’s not just prices under pressure. Sales are expected to stay muted this year, with activity near historic lows.

Even if that sounds like a dramatic downturn, the report points out that condo prices would still remain five to 10 per cent above pre-pandemic levels, despite this correction.

What’s weighing on the market?

Several factors are working against a recovery in condo prices.

First, population growth is slowing. After a period of record immigration, the federal government’s new, more restrictive policy has kicked in. “In the resale market, rents for the average one-bedroom apartment in the GTA fell by 5 (per cent) year-on-year in 2024 Q4,” the report says. With fewer people arriving, rents are dropping—and so is investor interest.

Investors have long been a key pillar of the GTA condo market, but the math just isn’t working anymore, Sondhi explains, adding “It’s also possible that the allure of achieving an acceptable ROI through rising condo prices has faded for investors, given the weak conditions that have prevailed for a few years, and the large deterioration in condo affordability.” 

Affordability continues to be a growing problem. Between elevated interest rates and high prices relative to income, first-time buyers are still on the sidelines, and investors aren’t picking up the slack.

Economic uncertainty is another key factor. Trade tensions are making Canadians think twice about making major purchases. According to a recent Bank of Canada survey cited in the report, 25 per cent of respondents said trade tensions made them less likely to spend, compared to just 7 per cent who said it increased the likelihood.

The job market isn’t helping either. Full-time employment dipped in March, especially in economically sensitive sectors. TD is forecasting further “near-term job losses” with unemployment nudging up to around 7 per cent.

And while condo completions are expected to fall significantly in 2025 (they were down 17 per cent in the first quarter), the overall supply is still relatively high. “As these units complete, listings will likely see some upward pressure as they did in 2024,” Sondhi explains.

Some relief ahead—but not a full rebound

Despite this gloomy outlook for 2025, TD expects things to start looking up in 2026. But don’t expect a rapid comeback.

A big part of the potential recovery hinges on interest rates. TD expects the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate by another 50 basis points this year, bringing it to 2.25 per cent and holding it there through 2026. That should ease some affordability pressures and encourage more buyers to return to the market.

Sondhi also points to pent-up demand, improved economic conditions and easing trade tensions as reasons for cautious optimism next year. As uncertainty fades, buyer confidence could slowly improve.

On the supply side, the impact of reduced construction starts in late 2024 should start to show up in the form of fewer condo completions by 2026. That, in turn, could help balance the market.

Government policies may help—but not right away

The newly elected federal Liberal government is promising to boost housing supply, and Sondhi expects some of its measures may eventually help the condo sector.

Among the pledges: eliminating the GST for first-time buyers purchasing homes under $1-million, creating a new construction-focused agency called “Build Canada Homes,” and cutting development charges by 50 per cent—a move that could be especially impactful in high-cost areas like the GTA.

Still, Sondhi warns that most of these policies will take time to affect the market. “Lags inherent in the homebuilding process suggest that the bulk of this impact on condo construction could happen after 2026,” the report notes.

The bottom line

The GTA condo market is in for another tough year in 2025, with prices expected to fall further and sales remaining sluggish. Investor activity is slowing, affordability remains a challenge, and economic uncertainty continues to hang over the sector.

While 2026 may offer a glimmer of hope—thanks to lower interest rates, improved sentiment, and less supply pressure—any rebound is likely to be modest.

“The anticipated turnaround in hiring and economic activity will probably be gradual and moderate,” Sondhi cautions. And with population growth still restrained and condos losing some of their appeal as investment vehicles, it’s first-time homebuyers who may end up driving the next chapter of the market.

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The region’s “housing market may feel balanced on the surface, but inventory trends are telling a different story,” the report states. Rennie projects a sharp 60 per cent rise in unsold condo units across the region by year’s end, jumping from the current 2,179 to an estimated 3,493.

“If the current trajectory holds, we’ll be ending 2025 with the highest level of unsold condo inventory in years,” said Ryan Berlin, head economist and vice president of intelligence at Rennie. “That has real implications, not just for what gets built next, but for how the region manages affordability, absorption, and future growth.”

The spike in unsold inventory comes as newly completed condos increasingly outpace buyer demand. While rental builds have gained momentum, Rennie notes pre-sale activity remains “sluggish.” Recent changes extended the marketing window under B.C.’s Real Estate Development Marketing Act from 12 to 18 months, but “still, higher interest rates, policy shifts, and investor uncertainty are contributing to elevated—and growing—unsold inventory levels.”

The report also outlines broader economic issues adding to market uncertainty, including prolonged labour market stress, demographic shifts and weakening immigration numbers that could lead to population decline in Metro Vancouver.

Lower interest rates from the Bank of Canada have reignited consumer credit growth, yet many homeowners will still face higher mortgage payments upon renewal this year. The good news? “While arrears rates are ticking up, they remain historically low.” Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar continues to lag behind the U.S. dollar, pressured by ongoing trade tensions.

Read the full report here. 

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Jordana Springgay

Jordana is the editor of Real Estate Magazine. You can reach her by email. 

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