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REM Bot

Content by REM Bot has been created with the assistance of AI. Audio and video interviews, conducted by our team with real people, are transcribed and repurposed into text for those who prefer reading. REM Bot articles are reviewed by staff before publication to ensure factual accuracy and maintain editorial standards.

The post The Canadian Real Estate October Market Breakdown appeared first on REM.

Related Posts

Foch: A market in full correction

Nov 5, 2025

October’s TRREB data paints a picture of a housing market still in retreat — where even falling prices can’t lure buyers back

read more

Team spotlight: Q&A with the Rob Golfi Team

Nov 5, 2025

With more than $670 million in sales volume in 2024 and nearly $423 million year-to-date in 2025, the Golfi Team dominates markets across southern Ontario.

read more

The Price Change Playbook: How top agents stay in control when listings stall

Nov 5, 2025

Unlock the secrets of top agents who navigate price changes with confidence and strategy. Learn how to keep control when listings stall and maintain client trust.

read more

« Older Entries

REM Bot

Content by REM Bot has been created with the assistance of AI. Audio and video interviews, conducted by our team with real people, are transcribed and repurposed into text for those who prefer reading. REM Bot articles are reviewed by staff before publication to ensure factual accuracy and maintain editorial standards.

The post How top Realtors stay calm when their listings don’t sell appeared first on REM.

August marked the fifth consecutive month of sales gains, edging national transactions 1.1 per cent higher on a seasonally adjusted basis and bringing cumulative activity since March to 12.5 per cent. It was the strongest August since 2021. Yet such framing obscures a more sobering reality.

Even after half a year of steady increases, sales remain well below long-term averages, as the Canadian Real Estate Association’s own chart illustrates below. The so-called resurgence is not a restoration of vitality by any means. It is just the slow crawl back to ordinary levels of activity after a period of deep contraction.

Supply’s ascendancy

If there is a true story in CREA’s August release, it is the rise of supply. New listings climbed 2.6 per cent month-over-month, more than double the pace of sales (refer to the chart by Valery below). Active listings stood 8.8 per cent higher than a year earlier, placing inventory squarely in line with historical norms. The sales-to-new listings ratio slipped to 51.2 per cent, beneath its long-term average of 54.9 per cent and a full point lower than in July. The balance has moved further in favour of supply.

These dynamics do not make for trivial ones. Policymakers and market participants alike must recognise that rising inventories alter the psychology of buyers and sellers. With more choice in the marketplace, prospective purchasers feel less urgency to transact, while vendors face greater competition. This is the mechanism by which price discovery bends downward, not upward, even in the face of incremental sales growth.

Prices under pressure

The price data reinforce this narrative of fragility. The national Home Price Index (HPI) was virtually unchanged in August, slipping 0.1 per cent from July and standing 3.4 per cent below its level a year earlier. The national average sale price rose 1.8 per cent year-over-year, but this was more a reflection of compositional shifts in where sales occurred than a substantive change in valuations. Benchmark prices remain largely flat since spring, a plateau that conceals persistent downward pressure in many local markets where supply is rising more rapidly than demand.

Months of inventory at 4.4 still sit slightly below the long-term average of five, a level that, in isolation, suggests modest seller leverage. Yet the trajectory tells a different story. New listings are climbing steadily, and with the seasonal surge of autumn supply we have witnessed, the leverage is already drifting toward buyers.

The policy lens

Much of the market’s trajectory in the coming months hinges on monetary policy. CREA’s economists openly speculated that a September rate cut could entice buyers off the sidelines. Yet such relief, if it arrives, will not erase the structural imbalance created by a surge in supply. Monetary easing may lubricate demand, but it cannot extinguish the additional competition sellers now face.

For governments, the lesson is sharper still. The surge of listings points toward the idea of strain. Investors under pressure from higher carrying costs, owners confronting mortgage renewal shocks, and developers actively working to clear unsold product all contribute to the current flow of listings onto the market. Urbanation recently reported that completed, developer-held condo inventory in the Greater Toronto Area reached a record high in Q2 2025. At the same time, STOREYS quoted major developers pointing to competitive pricing and incentive programs as necessary adaptations in the present market.

Policymakers should be wary of mistaking higher transaction counts for genuine affordability progress. A market that clears at lower prices due to stress-driven listings is a symptom of fragility, not a cure.

Outlook

The temptation to label August a turning point is strong. After years of volatility, Canadians are eager for signs of stability. Yet the evidence counsels caution. Sales are inching upward but remain subdued by historical standards. Listings are climbing more quickly than demand, shifting the balance of power toward buyers. Prices, meanwhile, are not rebounding; they are treading water under the weight of excess supply.

To call this a comeback is to misunderstand the mechanics of housing markets. Canada’s real estate sector is in a phase of recalibration, not resurgence, as some of my previous pieces allude to. Stakeholders who mistake volume for vitality risk misreading the very forces that will define the months ahead.

Daniel Foch

Daniel Foch is the Chief Real Estate Officer at Valery.ca, and Host of Canada’s #1 real estate podcast. As co-founder of The Habistat, the onboard data science platform for TRREB & Proptx, he helped the real estate industry to become more transparent, using real-time housing market data to inform decision making for key stakeholders. With over 15 years of experience in the real estate industry, Daniel has advised a broad spectrum of real estate market participants, from 3 levels of government to some of Canada’s largest developers.

Daniel is a trusted voice in the Canadian real estate market, regularly contributing to media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, CBC, Bloomberg, and The Globe and Mail. His expertise and balanced insights have earned him a dedicated audience of over 100,000 real estate investors across multiple social media platforms, where he shares primary research and market analysis.

The post Foch: Look closer before calling the August market a comeback appeared first on REM.

Don’t miss out—join us online for REM’s monthly market breakdown on Aug. 26 at 2 PM ET. REM, columnist Daniel Foch will analyze CREA’s latest stats, regional variations and what shifting sentiment means for Realtors—register here.

The headlines are loud again. Home sales are up double digits. Buyers are back. Market is heating up. But if you’re reading that and assuming we’ve returned to boom times in the Greater Toronto Area housing market, take a step back and squint a little. The numbers tell a different story. And in this business, it’s the fine print, not the front page, that tells you where things are headed.

Yes, sales are up. But from where?

A low tide makes for easy gains

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) July 2025 report touts a 10.9 per cent year-over-year increase in sales. That’s true. But let’s not pretend this is a return to 2021. We’re comparing this year’s performance to a brutally slow July in 2024. Gains from a low base can feel impressive on paper but are thin when stretched across the market’s broader context.

Prices are still down. Inventory is piling up. And homes are taking longer to sell. Those aren’t hallmarks of a market in full swing, but signals of a fragile rebound struggling to find its footing.

Prices down, affordability up… for now

The average home price in the GTA sits at $1,051,719, down 5.5 per cent from last July. Detached homes are down 5.1 per cent, condos down a staggering 9.3 per cent. These certainly aren’t rounding errors. They’re meaningful corrections.

But here’s where it gets interesting: as prices fall, affordability improves, at least on the surface. And this shift has attracted interest from buyers who may have been sidelined during the market’s peak. That’s part of why sales are ticking upward. People aren’t chasing the market. They’re entering it because it finally came back to them.

However, affordability is a slippery word in this environment. Rates haven’t meaningfully dropped. Mortgage qualification is still tight. And for every buyer who enters, there’s another household staying on the sidelines, unsure if this is truly the bottom.

Supply outpacing demand

The stat I’m watching closely? Active listings are up 26.2 per cent year-over-year. That’s massive. There are now over 30,000 homes on the market across the GTA, more than we’ve seen in several years.

Meanwhile, new listings rose by only 5.7 per cent year-over-year (lesser than June’s uptick). So where’s the jump in active inventory coming from? It’s not new supply. It’s old supply that’s sitting longer. And that points to a demand-side problem.

Homes aren’t moving like they used to (recall 2021). The average time a home sits on market (LDOM) has jumped by 25 per cent year-over-year. Properties are lingering. The majority of buyers are still hesitant.

Condo carnage and suburban softness

If you’re holding a pre-construction condo right now, you don’t need a market report to tell you what’s happening. You’re feeling it in your inbox: assignment listings, price drops, incentives. The condo market is taking the brunt of the correction.

Condos in the 905 area saw prices drop over 10 per cent. Even in the core, where demand tends to be more resilient, prices slipped nearly 9 per cent. That’s a sharp fall for a segment that once promised endless investor upside.

Townhouses and semis, long regarded as middle-market staples, saw year-over-year price drops of 7.4 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively. Detached homes, down 5.4 per cent, landed squarely between the two.

What we’re seeing is a broad-based softness, not a sector-specific slump. Every major home type is feeling the chill.

A market without momentum

The problem isn’t that buyers don’t want to buy. It’s that the market lacks conviction. There’s no urgency. When rates were low and prices were climbing, hesitation was costly. Today, waiting is rewarded.

That shift in psychology is powerful. It rewires the market’s metabolism. Buyers negotiate harder. Sellers reduce expectations. And the entire transaction cycle drags out.

In markets like these, volume can rise, just as it did in July, but that volume is often more reactive than proactive. It’s opportunistic. Buyers are bottom fishing.

So, is this the bottom?

Maybe. But bottoms in real estate are rarely sharp, and they almost never announce themselves. More often, they flatten out like a tired breath. What July gave us was a market trying to stabilize, not one bursting back to life.

The real momentum will come when two things align:

1. Interest rates ease meaningfully, unlocking credit and restoring confidence.
2. Sellers recalibrate expectations to match what buyers can actually afford.

Until then, we’ll keep seeing this kind of sideways movement. A little more volume. A little less price. A few more listings. A few more delays.

It’s not a crash. It’s not a boom. It’s a slow digestion.

Policy smoke and mirrors

TRREB’s commentary on the foreign buyer ban is worth noting. While many Canadians believe foreign investment is locked out, that’s not entirely true. Exemptions exist for multi-unit properties, development land, and rural housing.

But let’s be clear: foreign buyers aren’t driving this market and their absence isn’t what’s causing the slowdown. Domestic affordability, debt levels, and rate sensitivity are doing that all on their own.

Blaming or praising foreign policy tweaks won’t change the fundamentals.

Clarity in the noise

This market isn’t easy to read. The data gives us mixed signals. The headlines bounce between optimism and doom. But when you strip away the noise, one thing becomes clear:

We’re in the hangover phase.

The excesses of 2021 and 2022 are still being worked out. Some households are over-leveraged. Others are still underhoused. Prices have corrected, but the economic backdrop remains uncertain, especially with the Canadian economy “treading water” as TRREB puts it.

This isn’t a market to fear. But it’s not one to chase either. It’s a time to observe, to act selectively, and to resist the spin.

Final word

Don’t mistake a flicker for a flame. July gave us a pulse, not a comeback. If you’re in the market, buying, selling or advising, your edge right now is in understanding nuance. Look past the headlines. Study the inventory. Watch the clock.

And above all, stay disciplined.

The market rewards patience. Always has.

Daniel Foch

Daniel Foch is the Chief Real Estate Officer at Valery.ca, and Host of Canada’s #1 real estate podcast. As co-founder of The Habistat, the onboard data science platform for TRREB & Proptx, he helped the real estate industry to become more transparent, using real-time housing market data to inform decision making for key stakeholders. With over 15 years of experience in the real estate industry, Daniel has advised a broad spectrum of real estate market participants, from 3 levels of government to some of Canada’s largest developers.

Daniel is a trusted voice in the Canadian real estate market, regularly contributing to media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, CBC, Bloomberg, and The Globe and Mail. His expertise and balanced insights have earned him a dedicated audience of over 100,000 real estate investors across multiple social media platforms, where he shares primary research and market analysis.

The post Why rising sales don’t mean Toronto real estate is back: Foch appeared first on REM.

Suze Cumming, founder of The Nature of Real Estate and Canada’s Real Estate Negotiation guru, answers Realtors’ questions on the first Friday of the month about negotiation tactics and working through tricky situations. Have a question for Suze? Send her an email.

An offer arrives significantly below asking. The buyer’s agent is reluctant to cooperate, and your seller client, frustrated and defensive, flatly refuses to consider it. The home has sat on the market for over two months, your sellers urgently need to close on their new property within six weeks, and there are no other interested buyers in sight.

What’s your next move?

Welcome back to Negotiation Intelligence, your monthly resource dedicated to elevating your negotiation expertise and professional impact in real estate.

One of the greatest frustrations I consistently hear from agents is managing unrealistic price expectations—sellers often want too much; buyers offer too little.

But isn’t that precisely why negotiations—and why skilled, professional real estate agents—exist? Our value lies precisely in navigating these complex emotional landscapes to achieve outcomes clients can’t reach on their own.

Negotiations are challenging because most clients, and, frankly, many agents, haven’t had specialized training in these critical skills. As a result, they often default to rigid tactics, silence, or ineffective standoffs that rarely yield desired outcomes.

If pricing discussions were purely logical, sophisticated AI systems could easily handle them. But here’s the crucial truth: studies show roughly 80-90 per cent of real estate and financial decisions are emotionally driven, with logic serving primarily as justification afterward. 

Research by Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman supports this, revealing that about 90 per cent of financial decisions are emotion-based. Our role as Realtors extends far beyond delivering market data; it’s about guiding our clients toward clear, confident decisions that genuinely align with their best interests by understanding their emotions and motivations.

Mastering this skill set requires emotional intelligence, refined communication, and expert self-awareness. The good news? These are learnable skills, and the payoff in terms of trust, reputation, and personal fulfillment is tremendous.

Today, let’s tackle the scenario above, giving you tools you can use immediately and insights to start expanding your negotiation toolkit.

A playbook for managing untenable seller expectations

In this challenging situation, you face two distinct hurdles: a seller whose stance risks significant financial consequences, and a buyer’s agent who is disengaged. Both are familiar struggles, but let’s discuss the seller situation today. 

First, understand that your seller’s frustration and defensiveness come from a genuine place of fear and uncertainty. Adding pressure or urgency typically exacerbates their resistance. Instead, your initial goal is to build trust, lower stress levels, and create a safe environment where authentic dialogue can take place.

Here’s a practical framework you can implement immediately:

1. Acknowledge their reality: “I completely understand why this offer is disappointing. It’s not what you were hoping for, and I get that.” Remember, you are not necessarily agreeing with them—you’re simply letting them know that you understand and empathize with their situation.  This will give them the space to stop defending their position. 
2. Support their autonomy: “My goal isn’t to push you into accepting an offer you’re uncomfortable with. My role is to support you, no matter what decision you make. It’s important to me that you have all of the essential and accurate information required for this critical decision.”
3. Shift to solution-based questions: “Given our tight timeline, if you decide this offer isn’t acceptable, what’s your best alternative? What other options do we have to protect you financially?”

This approach immediately signals empathy, builds trust, and gently guides your client toward seeing the bigger picture without sacrificing their autonomy. It demonstrates professional competence and emotional understanding, positioning you as a trusted advisor rather than an adversary.

I recently worked with an agent who used this exact approach.  Her sellers initially rejected an offer $50,000 below asking.  After a 20-minute conversation using these techniques, they not only engaged with the offer but also discovered the buyers had flexibility on closing dates, ultimately saving the sellers $15,000 in bridge financing costs.  

Negotiations are opportunities—opportunities to show clients that you’re not only professionally capable but deeply human. Your ability to navigate challenging emotions and complex conversations will set you apart in this evolving market.  Agents who master these skills earn 40 per cent more in commission because they close deals that others can’t.  

Coming next

Each month in this column, we’ll delve deeper into real-world scenarios, offering tangible strategies you can adopt right away. You absolutely can master these nuanced skills, and when you do, you’ll find negotiation not only more successful but also more satisfying and rewarding.

Next month, we’ll cover how to handle the buyer’s agent’s avoidance in this negotiation, along with other challenging cooperative-agent situations. Have you noticed how often the other agent can be our greatest impediment to a successful transaction? We’ll go deep on the psychological triggers and negotiation strategies that turn reluctant buyer agents into collaborative partners.

I’m genuinely excited to join you on this journey. If you have challenging negotiation scenarios you would like me to address (anything except lead generation—seriously!), please reach out. Together, we’ll elevate your negotiation intelligence and empower you to thrive, one meaningful conversation at a time.

Suze Cumming

Suze Cumming is the founder of The Nature of Real Estate and Canada’s Real Estate Negotiation guru. Suze and her team have run over 5000 real estate professionals through negotiation designation courses since 2013 and have guided many top agents and teams to their success.  

Her courses, the Accredited Real Estate Negotiator (AREN) and the Professional Real Estate Negotiator (PREN), are Canada’s newest and fastest-growing designation.   These courses are offered live online in small interactive groups or in person for brokerages and boards.   

Suze is passionate about two things. Helping REALTORS get massively successful results for their clients and for themselves.   And Sailboat racing.   When Suze isn’t on a stage or in a zoom room, you’ll find her racing her sailing yachts in various locations around the world.    

For 40 years, Suze has been passionate about real estate and the lifestyle that it makes possible for each of us.  She knows for sure that the only way to the top is to be remarkably good at what you do.  

thenatureofrealestate.com/

The post Negotiation Intelligence: Align seller expectations with market realities appeared first on REM.

But what exactly makes a property “comparable,” and are we missing something by focusing solely on the technical side of the equation?

The traditional definition of a comparable property

If you’ve ever taken an appraisal course or leafed through a real estate textbook, you’ll find a familiar checklist for what constitutes a comparable property:

Architectural Style: Properties should share the same or very similar design and structure.

Age: Homes built around the same time are more likely to have similar systems, layouts, and potential issues.

Location: Proximity matters—not just the same city, but ideally the same neighborhood or even the same block.

Market Conditions: Sales must have occurred in a similar economic climate to ensure that price comparisons are valid.

Size and Features: Square footage, number of bedrooms and bathrooms, lot size, and amenities like garages or pools all factor in.

These criteria are essential for creating a level playing field when comparing properties. They ensure that the “product” being evaluated is as close as possible to the subject property and that the “community” context is consistent. This technical rigor is the foundation of accurate valuation.

The missing ingredient: Human behaviour

However, there’s a crucial element that traditional valuation models often overlook: the human factor. Real estate is not just about bricks, mortar, and numbers—it’s about people, their motivations, and their emotions.

One of the most important, yet underappreciated, questions when selecting comps is: Is the price range within the buying power of the target market? In other words, when listing a property, what is the actual buying ability of a typical buyer for this home? When working with buyers, are the comps within their realistic financial reach?

In my own career, I’ve always wished for unlimited resources to spend time interviewing buyers directly about their decisions.

During the early days of the Urea Formaldehyde Foam Insulation (UFFI) controversy, when buyers began purchasing homes with UFFI, I conducted direct interviews with about 100 buyers. I wanted to understand only what they bought, but why they bought.

The answers were rarely just about price, size, or location. They were about family, aspirations, fears, and sometimes, simple gut feeling.

Why emotions matter in valuation

Traditional appraisal methods rarely measure the emotional level of buyers or sellers, yet these emotions can have a profound impact on value. A home that “feels right” to a buyer may command a premium, even if it’s not the best deal on paper. 

Conversely, a property with a stigma (like one with a history of UFFI, for instance) may sell for less, despite meeting all the technical criteria for a comparable property.

Buyers are influenced by school districts, proximity to family, neighborhood reputation, and even the colour of the front door. Sellers, too, may hold out for a higher price because of sentimental attachment, or accept a lower offer for a quick sale due to life changes. These human factors are difficult to quantify, but they’re real—and they move markets.

Bridging the gap: A holistic approach to comparables

So, what’s the takeaway for Realtors and appraisers? While it’s essential to follow the technical guidelines for selecting comps, don’t lose sight of the people behind the transactions. When preparing a CMA or advising a client, consider:

• Who are the likely buyers?
• What is their financial capacity, and what motivates them?
• What emotional factors are at play?
• Are there features or stories that might add or subtract value in the eyes of buyers?
• How do recent sales reflect buyer psychology?
• Did a bidding war break out over a home with a unique feature? Did a property linger because it “felt wrong”?

By combining rigorous technical analysis with an understanding of human behavior, Realtors can provide more accurate, nuanced, and ultimately more valuable guidance to their clients.

A science, and an art

Comparable properties are the cornerstone of real estate valuation, but they’re only part of the story. The most successful real estate professionals recognize that behind every sale is a human drama, full of hopes, fears, and dreams. By acknowledging both the science and the art of valuation, we serve our clients—and our industry—better.

Barry Lebow

Barry Lebow, FRI, ASA, ABR, SREA, SRES, IFAS is an active Realtor and highly regarded real estate authority in Canada, who starts his 58th year in the profession in summer 2025.

Throughout his career, Barry has received numerous accolades from various real estate associations for his exceptional work in the industry. Although no longer an active appraiser, he maintains three recognized appraisal designations. Barry’s expertise extends to providing expert testimony in approximately 600 trials across North America, with his focus now on cases involving agents who are being sued.

Currently, he serves as broker of record at RE/MAX Realtron Robert Kroll Realty, Brokerage. For more information or to get in touch with Barry, visit barrylebow.com.

The post The secret to precise valuations? It’s not what you think appeared first on REM.

Don’t miss out—join us online for REM’s monthly market breakdown on June 24 at 2 PM ET. REM, columnist Daniel Foch will analyze CREA’s latest stats, regional variations and what shifting sentiment means for Realtors—register here.

Toronto’s real estate market is full. So why does it feel so empty?

There are more homes for sale in the GTA than we’ve seen in years. Mortgage rates are edging lower. Prices have slipped. Affordability has, by most measures, improved. In theory, this should be a buyer’s moment, one of those rare windows where lower prices and broader selection align.

But that moment isn’t materializing.

Instead, May 2025 delivered a market that’s swelling with supply, starved of urgency, and frozen in place. Buyers aren’t showing up. Sellers are clinging to expectations forged in the fever of past booms. And no one seems quite sure what happens next.

The latest data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) lays out the facts: sales are down, listings are up, and the gulf between them has never been wider. But the numbers only tell part of the story. To understand this market, you have to look beyond the metrics, to the psychology driving them.

This is a market defined by hesitation. And until the root causes are resolved, more listings alone won’t be enough to move it.

The supply spike that was supposed to spark recovery

TRREB reported 21,819 new listings in May 2025, second only to the frenzy of 2017, when panic selling triggered a 20 to 30 percent price correction in many pockets of the GTA. Active listings hit 30,964, marking the third highest inventory level in board history, surpassed only by 2013 and 2014.

With this kind of supply injection, the textbook response would be greater affordability, faster sales, and increased buyer participation. Affordability has, in fact, improved. The latest National Bank of Canada Housing Affordability Monitor, shows the sharpest affordability gains in several years, but the rest hasn’t followed. The numbers tell a different story.

Sales fell to 6,244, down 13.3 per cent from a year ago. The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) plunged to 34.9 per cent, firmly in buyer’s market territory. Months of inventory (MOI) now sits at 4.3, a clear sign that homes are accumulating on the market faster than they’re moving.

The market is revealing a growing imbalance.

Demand hasn’t just cooled. It’s frozen.

Buyers aren’t responding to affordability gains, at least not yet. Prices are down 4 per cent year-over-year. Mortgage rates have ticked slightly lower. Days on market have lengthened, suggesting more room to negotiate. And still, most buyers remain on the sidelines.

At the heart of this is psychology and hesitation.

TRREB’s own Chief Market Analyst, Jason Mercer, alluded to it directly: “The issue is a lack of economic confidence.” It’s the absence of clarity, on trade policy, on job growth, on inflation. In short, buyers are waiting for direction.

The confidence gap

Real estate markets run on momentum. When buyers sense urgency, rates rising, prices climbing, inventory tightening, they act. But today’s market offers the opposite. There’s no urgency, and no signal that conditions will worsen if buyers wait.

This dynamic is reflected in the biggest gap between supply and demand ever recorded by TRREB. As I noted in one of my tweets, May 2025 saw an unprecedented divergence between new listings volume and actual sales. More homeowners are trying to sell, but fewer people are motivated to buy. The result? Listings are piling up, and showings are going stale.

The last time active inventory outpaced sales at this scale was during the 2010–2015 stretch, a slow, sideways market that wore down both buyers and sellers with its inertia. See the chart below.

What’s happening in the 416 vs 905

Zooming in reveals a market diverging not just by product type, but by postal code as well.

In the 416, semi-detached and townhouse sales have shown quiet resilience, posting slight year-over-year sales gains even as overall demand softens. This suggests value-conscious buyers are cautiously re-entering urban markets where prices have corrected.

But detached homes and condos in the city tell a different story. With detached prices still above $1.7 million and condos facing oversupply and investor pullback, both segments continue to slide. Condo sales are down a whopping 25.2 per cent year-over-year, the sharpest drop across all housing types.

Meanwhile, the 905 region is where market slack is most apparent. Detached and townhouse sales have fallen significantly year-over-year. Pandemic-driven demand for space has cooled, and suburban sprawl is losing its premium, unless the discount is steep.

What’s unfolding is a regional recalibration, where buyers are reassessing value, commute, and lifestyle. We see early signs of urban demand flickering back to life. Suburban inventory is swelling without urgency.

As rates trend down further, this divergence could become one of the market’s defining shifts.

Sellers still in denial

While buyers hesitate, most sellers appear to be negotiating with the market from a position that no longer exists.

Average prices have only declined modestly. Detached homes in the 416 still hover around $1.72 million. Townhomes in the 905 are asking over $860,000. The belief that peak pricing is still achievable lingers, even as properties sit unsold for weeks.

But this strategy is failing in the face of buyer leverage. Properties that don’t adjust are being passed over. Pricing, presentation, and negotiation flexibility are essential.

What policy can’t fix (yet)

The federal government has renewed its commitment to affordability through its latest Throne Speech, promising more housing supply and faster development timelines. But policy tools are blunt instruments in a market governed by sentiment.

Lower taxes, faster approvals, and modular construction won’t change the fact that buyers aren’t sure whether now is the right time to act. Unless governments, and the broader economy, can restore trust, these measures may only add inventory to an already oversupplied market.

So where does that leave us?

The Greater Toronto housing market is drifting.

Buyers have the leverage, but they aren’t using it. Sellers have the listings, but not the pricing power. Policymakers have the promises, but not the credibility to move sentiment. Everyone is waiting for someone else to move first.

This is a question of trust. And right now, trust is in short supply.

Until buyers believe the floor is real, until sellers accept the ceiling has lowered, and until the broader economy sends a clear signal that stability is returning, the market will remain exactly where it is: in limbo.

Not crashing. Not climbing. Just stuck.

Daniel Foch

Daniel Foch is the Chief Real Estate Officer at Valery.ca, and Host of Canada’s #1 real estate podcast. As co-founder of The Habistat, the onboard data science platform for TRREB & Proptx, he helped the real estate industry to become more transparent, using real-time housing market data to inform decision making for key stakeholders. With over 15 years of experience in the real estate industry, Daniel has advised a broad spectrum of real estate market participants, from 3 levels of government to some of Canada’s largest developers.

Daniel is a trusted voice in the Canadian real estate market, regularly contributing to media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, CBC, Bloomberg, and The Globe and Mail. His expertise and balanced insights have earned him a dedicated audience of over 100,000 real estate investors across multiple social media platforms, where he shares primary research and market analysis.

The post Foch: Why supply alone won’t save an out-of-sync GTA market appeared first on REM.

Don’t miss out—join us online for REM’s monthly market breakdown on April 22 at 2 PM Eastern. REM, columnist Daniel Foch will analyze CREA’s latest stats, market slowdowns, and what shifting buyer sentiment means for Realtors ahead of the federal election. It’s free, no strings attached—register here.

There’s something truly sobering about the March 2025 CREA statistics. The industry has tried to sustain its hallmark optimism against a barrage of negativity in the economy. 

For months now, we’ve been whispering about uncertainty—about tariffs, interest rate indecision, macroeconomic jitters. But March 2025 didn’t whisper. It shouted, and what it revealed wasn’t just a housing market on pause, but one beginning to crack under the weight of something deeper: eroding buyer confidence.

Let’s talk facts first. Canadian home sales dropped 4.8 per cent in March compared to February. That’s the fourth month in a row. This is especially concerning when you realize that home sales typically rise through the spring market. Since the high point last November, we’re now down 20 per cent—not exactly the trajectory of a “rebound year,” as some hoped. In fact, these figures mark the weakest March since 2009—and let’s not forget what that year represented for the global economy.

Shaun Cathcart at CREA puts it bluntly, “We’ve gone from a slam dunk rebound year to treading water at best.” I’d go a step further. We’re not treading water. We’re navigating an undertow—quiet but persistent forces pulling at the market’s foundations.

So what’s really going on?

At the surface level, it’s easy to blame tariffs. The cross-border tension has injected volatility into sectors already walking a tightrope. But the slowdown is more than policy friction. It’s emotional. It’s psychological. When buyers are scared—not just of interest rates or job security, but of an unstable global order—they don’t transact. They wait. They sit. They second-guess.

That fear is now measurable. Year-over-year, March sales were down 9.3 per cent. Prices fell too, with the national average dropping 3.7 per cent to $678,331. That number may still feel lofty in most markets, but context is king: this is the sharpest year-over-year price dip we’ve seen in some time and the largest month-over-month index drop since late 2023.

Inventory is climbing—up 18.3 per cent from a year ago. And the sales-to-new listings ratio? Now sitting at 45.9 per cent, it hasn’t been this low since February 2009. It tells us something crucial: sellers are arriving, but the buyers? Not so much.

Canada is not a monolith—and the divide is widening

This is not a uniform market; Ontario and British Columbia are dragging national stats down with steep declines in activity and price. But in the Prairies, Quebec, and parts of Atlantic Canada, prices are still rising.

Translation? We’re seeing the emergence of two Canadas in housing. One, is cautious and cooling (urban, high-priced, economically exposed), while the other is stable or climbing (affordable, less volatile, often overlooked).

This divergence is more than a quirk—it’s a structural shift. We’re moving from a “rising tide lifts all boats” market to one where local resilience matters more than national trends. And that means buyers and sellers need to stop obsessing over headlines and start zooming in on hyperlocal realities.

Where does this leave us?

We’re navigating a market driven less by fundamentals and more by feelings—right now, those feelings are fragile. Buyers are hesitant. Sellers are listing—but they’re second-guessing every step, unsure whether to hold or drop prices. And with Canada officially in election mode, the federal government has slipped into a caretaker posture, sidelining any major housing decisions until a new mandate is in place. 

Meanwhile, escalating trade tensions and a fresh volley of tit-for-tat tariffs are tightening the screws on an already fragile economic outlook. Business confidence is showing signs of strain, particularly in trade-sensitive sectors. Consumer sentiment is similarly under pressure, with many Canadians pulling back on major purchases and bracing for more economic uncertainty.

And yet, even in this climate of hesitation, pockets of opportunity persist.

In markets where demand remains tight and inventory is still playing catch-up, we’re seeing price resilience—if not outright growth. For investors and upsizers, today’s softer pricing and reduced competition may offer a window of opportunity not seen in months. First-time buyers, however, are more likely to wait on the sidelines—hoping the next federal government delivers meaningful support before stepping into the market.

My take

This CREA report isn’t just another market update—it’s a mirror. And in it, we see a nation grappling with what it means to return to balance after years of policy sugar highs and emotional rollercoasters. The real estate industry is finally coming to odds with the really difficult hand it’s been dealt. 

To anyone watching the market: yes, the election matters—policy promises could shape the path forward and may even pull some buyers back in. But let’s not pretend the results alone will flip a switch. Ottawa can’t legislate confidence overnight, and no housing platform—however ambitious—will fix affordability or inventory challenges in one stroke. The real decisions will still be made around kitchen tables, with calculators, context, and a deep breath.

We’re not in a crisis. But we’re at a crossroads. And how Canadians choose to move next—whether with fear or foresight—will define the next chapter of our housing story.

Daniel Foch

Daniel Foch is the Chief Real Estate Officer at Valery.ca, and Host of Canada’s #1 real estate podcast. As co-founder of The Habistat, the onboard data science platform for TRREB & Proptx, he helped the real estate industry to become more transparent, using real-time housing market data to inform decision making for key stakeholders. With over 15 years of experience in the real estate industry, Daniel has advised a broad spectrum of real estate market participants, from 3 levels of government to some of Canada’s largest developers.

Daniel is a trusted voice in the Canadian real estate market, regularly contributing to media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, CBC, Bloomberg, and The Globe and Mail. His expertise and balanced insights have earned him a dedicated audience of over 100,000 real estate investors across multiple social media platforms, where he shares primary research and market analysis.

The post Foch on CREA’s March data: ‘We’re not in a crisis but we’re at a crossroads’ appeared first on REM.

Don’t miss out—join us online for REM’s monthly market breakdown on April 22 at 2 PM Eastern. REM, columnist Daniel Foch will analyze CREA’s latest stats, market slowdowns, and what shifting buyer sentiment means for Realtors ahead of the federal election. It’s free, no strings attached—register here.

If there’s one lesson March 2025 teaches us about the Greater Toronto Area real estate market, it’s this: gravity isn’t always a bad thing. After years of frenzied growth, soaring prices, and buyer competition that defied fundamentals, the market has begun a pretty serious descent in response to two key uncertainties in Canada’s market:

1. Donald Trump’s tariffs; and
2. The Canadian election taking place on April 28th.

But here’s the thing; a little bit of “pause and reflect” might be exactly what the market needs. February hinted at the shift, with declining sales, easing prices, and growing hesitation among buyers. March has only made that reality more pronounced. This is, in fact, the slowest spring market we’ve seen since the 1990s.

Source: TRREB, The Habistat

This isn’t a collapse, but a necessary recalibration—a sentimental pause that reflects caution, but not yet crisis.

According to the latest figures from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), sales were down significantly year-over-year, falling by 23.1 per cent. That may sound ominous, but the deeper story is far less dramatic. 

In fact, it’s rooted in something remarkably rational: buyers are pausing, not disappearing. And they’re doing so in response to the two aforementioned forces that define our current economic landscape. Just as we saw the market hit “pause” in November during the US election, buyers are patiently waiting to see what type of economy they’ll own property in. Sellers are equally confused, terminating listings at the highest rate we’ve ever seen.

Source: TRREB, The Habistat

Affordability is making a modest comeback

For the first time in several years, affordability is not only improving—it’s becoming a theme. The average sale price across the GTA clocked in at $1,093,254 in March, down 2.5 per cent from the same period last year. The MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark fell 3.8 per cent year-over-year, a signal that price softening is no longer confined to specific neighbourhoods or housing types—it’s systemic.

TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule captured the mood succinctly in TRREB’s monthly market report: homeownership is gradually becoming more attainable. With more inventory on the market, less upward price pressure and expectations of interest rate relief in the months ahead, buyers are regaining something they haven’t had in years—negotiating power. And that shift, while subtle, could have profound consequences for how this market behaves going forward.

The psychological stalemate

If March feels muted, it’s because the market is holding its breath. Policy ambiguity—whether around tariffs, employment or housing—is giving households pause. When consumer confidence falters, so does the willingness to commit to long-term debt.

But this psychological limbo isn’t permanent. The fundamentals—population growth, immigration and housing demand—haven’t changed. What has changed is the emotional tenor of the market. Gone is the “fear of missing out” that defined the pandemic-era run-up. In its place is a kind of measured hesitancy. Buyers want to see where interest rates land, how the federal platforms shake out and whether job security can be taken for granted again. Until then, many are content to wait.

Supply is rising, and that’s a good thing

While buyer activity has cooled, supply is gaining ground. New listings surged 28.6 per cent year-over-year to 17,263, and active listings rose to 23,462—a whopping 88.8 per cent increase in supply compared to last year. This shift is a healthy development in a market that could be creating a pent-up demand scenario while buyers wait on the sidelines. Should buyers decide to return to the market after the election, they’ll have a lot of options to choose from. 

A functioning market isn’t one where homes vanish in two days with twenty bids—it’s one where buyers have choices, sellers must justify their pricing, and balance begins to return. In fact, March’s sales-to-new listings ratio landed at just 36.6 per cent—firmly in buyer’s market territory—highlighting how today’s conditions are giving buyers more room to move, even if many are choosing to wait.

With this added inventory has come a natural rebalancing. Homes are taking longer to sell—the average days on market (LDOM) rose from 20 to 24—and pricing is far more elastic. Sellers who cling to 2021 pricing expectations are being met with silence. Those who understand the moment and list accordingly are still moving product. In this new landscape, presentation, precision, and patience matter.

How different housing types are absorbing the slowdown

The price movements, though broadly downward, reveal subtle shifts in how different buyer groups are responding to current conditions. Detached homes continue to dominate in both price and prestige, averaging $1.44-million. Semi-detached properties settled at $1.11-million, townhomes at $908,000, and condos at a more accessible $682,000 (all figures rounded). But it’s in the sales activity—not pricing—where a more revealing story unfolds. Detached homes saw a 24.9 per cent drop in sales year-over-year. Condos followed closely, falling 23.5 per cent. Townhouses and semis experienced similar declines.

What this suggests is that the pullback is not being driven by any one segment, but rather by a shared sense of hesitation across the board—a kind of cross-demographic caution. But notably, the sharp drop in detached activity may reflect the pause of move-up buyers, many of whom already hold significant equity but are waiting for clearer economic signals before trading up. Meanwhile, condo activity cooling implies first-time buyers are still constrained by financing costs. In both cases, the slowdown speaks more to sentiment than structural weakness.

What’s next: All eyes on the Bank of Canada—and Parliament Hill

Interest rates remain the most critical variable shaping the market’s immediate trajectory. In March, the Bank of Canada reduced its target overnight rate to 2.75 per cent. While this reduction does not return us to the ultra-accommodative policies of the early 2020s, it represents a meaningful adjustment aimed at stimulating economic activity amid ongoing trade uncertainties (see chart below).

The other wildcard is political. As the federal election approaches, housing has re-emerged as a top-tier issue across party platforms. Voters are demanding bold action on supply, affordability, and taxation. And while the policy specifics remain fluid, the message from the public is clear: housing is no longer a personal challenge—it’s a national one.

This is the market we asked for

The GTA real estate market is no longer in overdrive—and that, frankly, is a relief. In February, TRREB flagged signs of moderation: slower sales, stable-to-declining prices, and growing inventory levels. March has simply confirmed that the shift is real. 

After a decade of volatility, the current conditions—stable prices, increased supply, and longer selling windows—feel less like a downturn and more like a long-overdue correction. Buyers are cautious but curious. Sellers are realistic or becoming so. And the industry is learning how to operate without the crutch of cheap money.

This isn’t the market of the past five years. It’s the market we’ve needed. Balanced. Deliberate. Sober. And very possibly, the foundation for a more sustainable chapter in GTA housing.

Daniel Foch

Daniel Foch is the Chief Real Estate Officer at Valery.ca, and Host of Canada’s #1 real estate podcast. As co-founder of The Habistat, the onboard data science platform for TRREB & Proptx, he helped the real estate industry to become more transparent, using real-time housing market data to inform decision making for key stakeholders. With over 15 years of experience in the real estate industry, Daniel has advised a broad spectrum of real estate market participants, from 3 levels of government to some of Canada’s largest developers.

Daniel is a trusted voice in the Canadian real estate market, regularly contributing to media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, CBC, Bloomberg, and The Globe and Mail. His expertise and balanced insights have earned him a dedicated audience of over 100,000 real estate investors across multiple social media platforms, where he shares primary research and market analysis.

The post Foch: The market isn’t falling—it’s finding its feet appeared first on REM.

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