market trends Archives - REM https://realestatemagazine.ca/tag/market-trends/ Canada’s premier magazine for real estate professionals. Tue, 04 Nov 2025 12:07:47 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.3 https://realestatemagazine.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/cropped-REM-Fav-32x32.png market trends Archives - REM https://realestatemagazine.ca/tag/market-trends/ 32 32 Open house trends defining Canada’s uneven real estate market https://realestatemagazine.ca/open-house-trends-defining-canadas-uneven-real-estate-market/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/open-house-trends-defining-canadas-uneven-real-estate-market/#respond Mon, 03 Nov 2025 10:05:23 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=40879 Open houses are evolving across Canada. Attendance may be inconsistent, but many agents say they remain a vital tool for connection, marketing and uncovering serious buyers

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Toronto Realtor Martina Brankovsky hosted an open house recently that was so slow she spent most of her time there wondering how other agents’ open houses are faring in this tricky market, where just the sight of a car slowing down outside can get your hopes up.

Brankovsky, who’s with Royal LePage, believes that open houses are still worthwhile (“all you need is one buyer”). But she’s finding that there’s often less traffic through them in her area than in previous years. After all, when sales are down, open house activity tends to fall off as well, although it can depend on the neighbourhood.

“There’s nothing worse than sitting there for four hours with no one coming through. I think at the moment it’s less about the market and more about the economy. The cost of living is holding people back.” 

Different stories across the country

 

Post-pandemic-related changes must be considered as well. With homebuyers now having increased access to tools such as virtual tours, a lot of legwork can be done online, making a decline in open house activity seemingly inevitable.

But while this seems to be the case in certain pricy major centres, particularly Toronto and Vancouver, it’s a different story elsewhere, with some higher-performing markets seeing activity galore.

The latest data shows that “stark regional variations” have characterized the fall housing market, observes Ryan McLaughlin, an economist with Wahi, a Canadian digital real estate platform. According to RPS-Wahi’s latest house price index report, home prices continue to slide in the country’s most expensive cities. 

“But in select locales with better affordability conditions, gains are beginning to accelerate,” says McLaughlin. You could probably conclude that in these latter areas, it would make sense that there’s more open house action, he notes. 

Although the national numbers overall are suggestive of a market on pause, “that’s certainly not the case in cities in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, as well as certain parts of the Prairies, which may be heating up more,” McLaughlin explains.

While this latest fall data show Toronto and Vancouver housing prices dropping by at least four per cent from last year, quite a few cities with greater affordability have been experiencing stable performance and significant price growth. McLaughlin lists Winnipeg, Quebec City, Montreal and Regina among these, and to a lesser extent Calgary, Edmonton and Halifax.  

 

Canada’s easternmost city is ‘on fire’

 

 RPS-Wahi also has data not publicly included in its price index showing that year-over-year, home prices in St. John’s, N.L., have grown a whopping 12 per cent. 

Says Jim Burton, owner of ReMax Infinity in St. John’s: “Things are on fire here. It’s crazy busy. I’ve never seen a market like this. In a market currently not experiencing the best in some Canadian centres, be aware that other parts of the country are robust. And Newfoundland is one of them.”

This is a welcome change for the local real estate community. “We’re a hardened crew, used to going out and nesting in the gale, surviving hard times,” says Burton. 

Today, inventory in St. John’s is down, and sales are up. Multiple offers and homes selling over-asking have become common, which is unusual for the province. 

“We’re seeing a lot of capital coming in,” observes Burton. “There’s an abundance of buyers and few sellers. A lot of people are attending open houses. They’re pumped.” 

 

Making a case for open houses

 

Far from feeling that open houses are an outdated tool, Burton continues to find them a cost-efficient way of marketing, promotion and lead generation – not to mention an industry standard which tends to be expected by clients.

But not to worry, in a competitive sellers’ market like St. John’s, there’s no need for agents to knock themselves out getting overly creative with their open houses, in his opinion.

“Do your homework and be prepared,” he advises. Advertise well in advance. Take care of any necessary painting and repairs. “Put some buns in the oven and create a warm atmosphere.”

 

Setting the mood

 

Then again, kicking it up a notch can’t hurt. 

At the open houses hosted by Calgary agent Renata Reid, senior vice-president of sales at Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, there may be live music, catered refreshments and games. Once, an Aston Martin was on display in all its glory. Buyers can’t get that experience – the aromas, the ambiance – online, she observes.

“It creates an atmosphere that makes people feel welcomed and want to linger. I take open houses to the next level.”

It’s hard to say what, if anything, would bring open house activity fully back to pre-pandemic levels Canada-wide. With Christmas less than two months away, it won’t be long before the seasonal slowdown hits. Many agents don’t do open houses on holiday weekends, focusing instead on family. But there are plenty of people visiting from out of town during holidays with time on their hands, who may be looking to move closer to relatives, Reid points out.

“Take a break if you need it. But it can be a great time for an open house.”

 Vancouver-based eXp Realty agent Tom Ikonomou agrees. 

“If people are trudging through the snow to an open house during a holiday, then you know they’re serious about buying.”

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Rental market continues to cool as new supply comes online https://realestatemagazine.ca/canadas-rental-market-continues-to-cool-as-new-supply-surges/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/canadas-rental-market-continues-to-cool-as-new-supply-surges/#respond Fri, 17 Oct 2025 09:01:24 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=40609 Canada’s rental market is cooling as record supply and weaker demand push one-bedroom rents to $1,821 and two-bedroom units to $2,258, both down more than four per cent

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Canada’s rental market continued to cool last month as record levels of new housing supply and softer demand pushed prices lower across much of the country compared to last year.

Zumper’s National Rent Index showed the median one-bedroom rent edged up just 0.1 per cent in September to $1,821, while two-bedroom units rose 0.1 per cent to $2,258 compared to August. On an annual basis, rents fell 4.1 and 4.3 per cent, respectively, the twelfth straight month of year-over-year declines.

Major markets such as Toronto and Vancouver, where new apartment completions have surged, posted some of the steepest rent drops. In contrast, smaller Ontario cities like Kingston, Windsor and Winnipeg, where construction pipelines remain more limited, have shown greater price stability.

 

 

 

The data points to a broader trend affecting all sides of the housing market: record construction activity, slower population growth following federal immigration policy shifts, and a cooling labour market are easing pressure on renters after years of steep increases.

For renters, it’s the most tenant-friendly market seen in years, though the relief may not be felt equally everywhere, according to Zumper’s report.

 

 

Kingston tops rent growth as other Ontario cities see steep declines

 

Kingston posted the fastest rent growth in the country last month, with average prices rising five per cent compared with a year earlier. Windsor ranked second with a 3.6 per cent increase, while Regina placed third at 3.1 per cent.

At the other end of the market, Barrie saw the sharpest decline, with rents down 10.3 per cent from last year. Toronto followed closely with a 10.2 per cent drop, while Kitchener recorded a 7.9 per cent decrease.

 

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Hot Saskatchewan market continues to outpace national trends https://realestatemagazine.ca/hot-saskatchewan-market-continues-to-outpace-national-trends/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/hot-saskatchewan-market-continues-to-outpace-national-trends/#respond Wed, 08 Oct 2025 09:02:39 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=40495 Saskatchewan’s housing market refuses to cool, with near-record September sales defying slowdowns elsewhere and keeping inventory levels at historic lows

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September marked another month of solid activity in Saskatchewan, with sales up 10 per cent year-over-year to 1,528, the second-highest total ever recorded for the month, according to the Saskatchewan Realtors Association (SRA).

New listings increased five per cent but remained nine per cent below long-term trends. Strong demand and near-record sales pushed inventory down 14 per cent from last year, leaving supply more than 40 per cent below historical levels.

Nearly 950 of the 4,896 active listings were conditionally sold, reducing available inventory to 3,958 heading into October.

“Our province continues to chart its own path, defying national narratives and posting strong sales despite typical seasonal trends and ongoing inventory challenges,” said SRA CEO Chris Guérette.

The provincial benchmark price dipped slightly from August to $368,300, reflecting seasonal patterns, said SRA. Still, prices were up seven per cent compared with September 2024.

“While transaction volumes in the coming months will ease with seasonal trends, the sustained demand we’re seeing is beyond impressive, and all signs point to continued momentum as we look to finish the year strong,” Guérette said.

 

Urban markets show strength

 

Regina reported 375 sales in September, its strongest September on record. That was up 18 per cent year over year and 37 per cent above the 10-year average. New listings rose 16 per cent, but strong demand kept inventory tight. The benchmark price dipped to $337,000 from August yet remained five per cent higher than last year.

Saskatoon posted 426 sales, down one per cent from 2024 but still 20 per cent above the long-term average. New listings jumped 11 per cent, though inventory was flat. The benchmark price slipped to $431,400 from a record high in August, while remaining seven per cent higher than a year ago.

 

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Foch: Why Toronto housing has yet to reach the bottom https://realestatemagazine.ca/foch-why-toronto-housing-has-yet-to-reach-the-bottom/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/foch-why-toronto-housing-has-yet-to-reach-the-bottom/#respond Mon, 06 Oct 2025 19:08:29 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=40463 Month-to-month, prices appear stable, but the broader trend is downward pressure as supply outpaces the ability of buyers to absorb it

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Don’t miss out—join us online for REM’s monthly market breakdown on Oct. 28 at 2 PM ET. REM, columnist Daniel Foch will analyze CREA’s latest stats, regional variations and what shifting sentiment means for Realtors—register here.

 

September’s housing data for the Greater Toronto Area released by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) carried headlines that seemed to suggest improvement.

Sales were up 8.5 per cent compared with a year earlier, and the Bank of Canada’s September rate cut provided a modest lift to affordability. More households stepped back into the market as mortgage payments inched closer to reach, creating the impression that momentum is returning. Yet the deeper reading is less reassuring. Prices remain in retreat, listings continue to accumulate, and the time it takes to sell a property has stretched noticeably. The result is a market that looks busier but remains structurally imbalanced, as I pointed out in my op-ed for August’s numbers.

TRREB reported an average sale price of $1.06 million in September, down 4.7 per cent year-over-year. The MLS Home Price Index fell by 5.5 per cent, confirming that valuations are slipping. Month-to-month, prices appear stable, but the broader trend is downward pressure as supply outpaces the ability of buyers to absorb it.

 

Supply outpaces demand

 

The year-over-year summary reveals how fragile this apparent recovery is. Active listings climbed by nearly 19 per cent compared with September 2024, while sales increased by less than half that pace. New listings edged up only 3.9 per cent, meaning more homes are stagnating on the market and have driven the total inventory to 29,394. As Valery agent Robert Marsiglio illustrated in a chart shared on X (given below), September 2025 ranked as the second busiest September for new listings across the GTA in the past decade. Homes are also taking longer to sell, with the average listing period increasing from 27 to 33 days and property days on market stretching from 42 to 51.

 

 

Earlier today, I tweeted that no serious discussion of a bottom can take place while supply continues to rise faster than demand. Until that imbalance shifts, prices are unlikely to stabilize with any permanence.

 

 

Uneven geographies

 

The breakdown by home type illustrates just how uneven the correction has become. Detached sales rose 9.6 per cent year-over-year, yet average prices fell 5.1 per cent. Semi-detached homes saw an 11 per cent increase in sales, with prices down 6.8 per cent. Condominiums recorded a 7.2 per cent gain in sales while prices slipped 4.3 per cent.

One segment stands apart. Townhouse sales in the 416 soared nearly 40 per cent compared with last year, the strongest growth of any category. Prices still declined by almost five per cent, but the sharp rise in transactions signals a clear buyer preference for ground-oriented homes that remain relatively more affordable than detached properties while offering more space and utility than a condominium.

The divergence between the 416 and 905 regions further underscores the imbalance. Detached home prices in the city declined by less than one per cent, while suburban detached properties fell by 7.2 per cent. Central locations show relative resilience, while suburban markets face a steeper adjustment. The leap in townhouse demand within Toronto proper points to an enduring appetite for “missing middle” housing, even as other segments struggle to find stability.

 

 

Policy, economics and the fragility of confidence

 

All of this is unfolding against a difficult economic backdrop. GDP contracted by 1.6 per cent in the second quarter, and unemployment in Toronto has climbed to nine per cent. Inflation has cooled to 1.7 per cent, which gives the Bank of Canada space to continue easing, but households remain wary. Even with slightly lower borrowing costs, buyers are pressing harder in negotiations, fully aware that inventory levels tilt the leverage in their favour.

TRREB is right that lower rates stimulate spending and provide some cushioning for the broader economy. Yet reliance on monetary easing to prop up sales activity is a poor substitute for structural balance. A housing market that functions only when rates are falling reflects deeper problems of affordability and income stagnation.

 

What comes next

 

The path forward will hinge on whether demand can sustainably absorb the surge of listings. Additional rate cuts may add momentum, but they cannot alone correct the oversupply or rebuild seller confidence. Policymakers and builders will need to confront the alignment of new supply with true affordability rather than perpetuating cycles of overhang and retrenchment.

For buyers, this remains a rare period of leverage. Choice is abundant, timelines are extended, and sellers are adjusting expectations downward. September’s data reinforce a clear point. Toronto’s housing market has not yet found its bottom, and until supply and demand converge, recovery will remain more appearance than reality.

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Vancouver home sales rise slightly as borrowing eases https://realestatemagazine.ca/vancouver-home-sales-rise-slightly-as-borrowing-eases/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/vancouver-home-sales-rise-slightly-as-borrowing-eases/#respond Mon, 06 Oct 2025 09:05:26 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=40432 Vancouver’s housing market showed modest improvement in September, as easing prices, increased listings and lower borrowing costs provided buyers with renewed opportunities

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Metro Vancouver’s housing market posted a slight lift in September, as lower interest rates and easing prices encouraged buyers to strike.

Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) reported 1,875 residential sales last month, a 1.2 per cent increase (23 sales) from the same month last year.

Despite the gain, sales remained 20.1 per cent below the region’s 10-year seasonal average of 2,348.

The benchmark price for all residential properties was $1.14 million in September, down 3.2 per cent from September 2024, and a 0.7 per cent dip from August.

“With another cut to Bank of Canada’s policy rate behind us, and markets pricing in at least one more cut by the end of the year, Metro Vancouver homebuyers have reason to be optimistic about the fall market,” said Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics. “Easing prices, near-record high inventory levels, and increasingly favourable borrowing costs are offering those looking to purchase a home this fall with plenty of opportunity.”

 

Inventory levels on the rise

 

Sellers were also more active, with 6,527 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed in September. That marks a 6.2 per cent increase year-over-year, and sits 20.1 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average of 5,434.

The total number of homes listed on the MLS reached 17,079, up 14.4 per cent from 14,932 in September 2024. Current listings stand 36.1 per cent above the long-term average of 12,553.

The sales-to-active listings ratio across all property types was 11.3 per cent in September. Historically, sustained ratios below 12 per cent signal downward pressure on prices, while levels above 20 per cent point to price gains, said GVR.

 

Outlook

 

“The past few years have been quite challenging for the market, beginning with 2022’s rapid increase in interest rates, major political and policy shifts in subsequent years, and recent trade tensions with the USA weighing on the market,” Lis said. “With the acute impacts of these events now fading, we expect market activity to continue stabilizing to end the year, barring any unforeseeable major disruptions.”

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‘Micro-bursts’ of intense demand popping up in Ottawa’s luxury market https://realestatemagazine.ca/micro-bursts-of-intense-demand-popping-up-in-ottawas-luxury-market/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/micro-bursts-of-intense-demand-popping-up-in-ottawas-luxury-market/#respond Wed, 01 Oct 2025 09:00:24 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=40369 A handful of neighbourhoods in Canada’s capital city are seeing increased demand for homes over $1 million, despite a broader market slowdown

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Ottawa’s housing market is holding its ground despite broader slowdowns, with bidding wars erupting in some of the top neighbourhoods, even as overall inventory climbs to its highest level in seven years.

John King, license partner and broker at Engel & Völkers Ottawa, coined the term “microbursts” to describe these pockets of intense activity in the city’s most desirable areas, like Westboro, the Glebe, Old Ottawa South, Golden Triangle, Wellington Village, and Highland Park, among others.  

“If a home is priced right, you can still see multiple offers,” King said. “It’s really location and price-sensitive.”

 

Luxury market trending up

 

According to Engel & Völkers’ 2025 mid-year Canadian Luxury Real Estate Market Report, properties priced between $1 million and $1.99 million accounted for 10.8 per cent of all real estate transactions in Ottawa in the first half of the year, up from 8.6 per cent in the same period last year. 

As of the end of June, total residential and condo sales in the $1 million-plus segment were up 31.2 per cent year-over- year, underscoring Ottawa’s role as one of Canada’s most “resilient luxury markets amid broader national volatility,” reads the report.

Still, notes Engel & Völkers, buyers remained somewhat cautious. 

“Unlike the bidding wars of recent years, 2025 saw extended decision timelines and increased scrutiny of floor plans, renovation needs and neighbourhood trends,” reads the report.

Ottawa Real Estate Board backs up the case for a strong luxury market, with homes over $1 million up 31 per cent in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year. Those homes represent 11 per cent of all Ottawa sales, up from nine per cent a year earlier. However, inventory has risen 60 per cent, meaning “there is a lot more competition for luxury buyers than ever before,” King said.

 

‘Sellers can still call the shots’

 

Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at RBC, says Ottawa’s steadiness comes from a tighter balance between supply and demand than in other major Canadian centres. “It has seen an increase in supply, but nowhere as much as markets like Toronto or even Vancouver,” he said. “Sellers can still call the shots … that’s why we’re seeing prices remaining relatively resilient in Ottawa compared to other markets.”

While inventory has risen, Hogue described the shift as a market correction after the extremely tight conditions of the past few years. He linked it to the sharp interest rate hikes between 2022 and 2024, which slowed demand and lengthened selling times. “This has been starting to reverse since the Bank of Canada’s cut rates, but not entirely.”

The broader economy is also a factor, he said. “Ottawa has been a bit more … resilient in its labour market, but it’s softened as well,” Hogue said. Consumer confidence, he added, has been challenged by a slower Canadian economy and the trade dispute with the U.S.

 

What’s in store for the rest of the year?

 

Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, King said he expects “more of the same” with strong competition in desirable neighbourhoods, increased bargaining power for buyers, and an emphasis on correct pricing. “You’ve got to be priced right, you’ve got to be marketed properly, and you’ve got to be well represented to get the people in there,” he said.

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First-time buyers know what they want — but not when to buy https://realestatemagazine.ca/no-fixer-uppers-please-whats-driving-first-time-buyer-decisions/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/no-fixer-uppers-please-whats-driving-first-time-buyer-decisions/#respond Fri, 26 Sep 2025 09:05:10 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=40159 First-time buyers want detached, turnkey homes, but many are holding off, waiting for stability, better deals or financial help, according to a new survey

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QUICK HITS

  • Thirteen per cent of Canadian adults are working towards their first residential property purchase within the next two years; a majority of them plan to buy in the next 12 to 24 months
  • More than half (53 per cent) of first-time buyers plan to put at least 20 per cent down on their purchase; while 39 per cent will not
  • Forty one per cent of first-time buyers say they will receive financial assistance from family or friends, while 51 per cent will not
  • Single-family detached properties remain the most popular housing type among first-time buyers
  • Finding a home that is move-in ready is the most important non-price related factor for first-time buyers

Many Canadians in the market for their first home have a clear picture of what they want, and falling interest rates, rising inventory and softening prices are making it more achievable. 

Still, a recent survey from Royal LePage, conducted by research firm Burson, finds that many aren’t ready to pull the trigger just yet.

The survey found that 13 per cent of Canadian adults intend to purchase their first home within the next two years. Of those, the majority (82 per cent) are targeting a purchase timeline between 12 and 24 months, rather than the next year.

More than half (51 per cent) of first-time buyers say they are researching affordable neighbourhoods, while 49 per cent are browsing online listings. Nineteen per cent have started attending in-person showings, and another 19 per cent have contacted a real estate agent.

“Interest rates are trending lower and prices have stabilized or even softened in some markets, creating favourable conditions for long-awaited entry into home ownership,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “Yet, hesitation remains.”

Economic uncertainty and the potential for further rate cuts are encouraging many would-be buyers to delay their entry. According to Royal LePage, 36 per cent of agents report increased first-time buyer activity this year, while 25 per cent say activity levels are unchanged.

Home prices have remained relatively flat. In Q2 2025, the national aggregate price increased 0.3 per cent year-over-year to $826,400, while quarter-over-quarter, prices fell 0.4 per cent, according to the most recent Royal LePage Home Price Update.

More than half (53 per cent) intend to make a down payment of 20 per cent or more, while 39 per cent plan to purchase with less than 20 per cent down and secure mortgage insurance.

 

Detached dream

 

Detached homes remain the preferred choice for 49 per cent of first-time buyers, despite higher prices. 

Lifestyle preferences also play a role: 42 per cent of first-time buyers say they will choose a neighbourhood based on lifestyle, even if it means a longer commute. Move-in ready homes, outdoor space and proximity to amenities remain top priorities.

To afford their first home, 60 per cent of buyers are seeking properties in more affordable areas, 40 per cent are downsizing expectations, and 39 per cent are cutting discretionary spending. Nearly 30 per cent plan to use retirement or investment savings to fund their purchase.

 

Family support, budget pressures shape buying decisions

 

Family financial support remains a key factor. While 51 per cent of prospective buyers say they will not receive any assistance, 41 per cent say they will.

Among those receiving help, 29 per cent will get a lump sum with no repayment required, 27 per cent will receive a loan, 28 per cent will have a co-signer, and 26 per cent will get help covering monthly payments.

“The gap between those who receive financial assistance and those who do not highlights the deep affordability challenges in today’s market,” said Soper.

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Home prices up for the first time in seven months: National Bank https://realestatemagazine.ca/home-prices-up-for-the-first-time-in-seven-months-national-bank/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/home-prices-up-for-the-first-time-in-seven-months-national-bank/#respond Thu, 18 Sep 2025 09:05:08 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=40041 After five months of rising sales, Canadian home prices edged up 0.4% in August, though major cities continue trailing December 2024 values

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Canada’s home prices appeared to be on an upward trajectory in August, for the first time in 2025, with the Teranet-National Bank composite index reporting a 0.4 per cent increase from July. 

The small gain comes as the number of transactions on the resale market continued to rise for the fifth consecutive month, noted senior economist Daren King.

He said the “very soft” market conditions in Ontario tightened somewhat with the recent spike in activity, allowing prices to rise during the month in Toronto, Hamilton, and Ottawa-Gatineau. 

 

Prices remain down from 2024

 

Despite this growth in August, the index still remains 4.6 per cent below its December level, with declines over this period of 7.9 per cent in Toronto, 7.4 per cent in Hamilton, and 1.5 per cent in Ottawa-Gatineau. 

Market conditions also eased significantly in British Columbia, with Vancouver and Victoria posting declines of 7.1 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively. 

“Against the backdrop of the current trade dispute, market resilience has depended on differing levels of affordability,” said King. “Indeed, the markets with the highest affordability challenges saw the sharpest declines, as the financial risk of such a large real estate transaction was amplified by economic uncertainty.”

 

What’s next?

 

King said it is still too early to say whether the positive trend will continue in the months ahead, even with Bank of Canada rate cuts. The Bank of Canada lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent on Wednesday, marking its first cut since March.

“Continuing uncertainty, moderating population growth, the risk of persistently high long-term interest rates, and a potentially further deterioration in the labour market will continue to weigh on the housing market,” said King.

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August housing starts dip 16%: CMHC https://realestatemagazine.ca/august-housing-starts-dip-16-cmhc/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/august-housing-starts-dip-16-cmhc/#respond Wed, 17 Sep 2025 09:02:21 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=40037 Canada’s housing starts pulled back last month, driven by sharp declines in the multi-family sector. Starts were down in nine of 10 provinces, says CMHC

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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) says the pace of housing starts in August declined 16 per cent month-over-month.

CMHC’s monthly report released Tuesday says the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts came in at 245,791 units in August, down from 293,537 in July.

In a statement, CMHC chief economist Kevin Hughes called the slowdown “notable,” as it’s well below the six-month trend. However, a sustained decline would be consistent with forecasts, he said.

“It is worth noting that current housing starts levels are generally reflective of decisions made when interest rates were receding and investor confidence was higher than it is today,” said Hughes. 

In urban markets, the decline was driven by the multi-family sector, where starts plunged by nearly 50,000 units, compared to July, to 183,000 units. Meanwhile, single-detached starts dipped 1,800 to 40,000 units.

The only province to see a rise in housing starts last month was Manitoba.

A note from TD Bank economist Rishi Sondhi said stable building permits point to a healthy pipeline of housing starts in the near term. 

“However, we expect some moderation in homebuilding in 2026 amid slowing population growth and falling rents,” said Sondhi. “Meanwhile, past declines in pre-construction home sales should keep a lid on construction in the ownership market.”  

 

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Foch: Look closer before calling the August market a comeback https://realestatemagazine.ca/foch-look-closer-before-calling-the-august-market-a-comeback/ https://realestatemagazine.ca/foch-look-closer-before-calling-the-august-market-a-comeback/#comments Tue, 16 Sep 2025 09:05:53 +0000 https://realestatemagazine.ca/?p=40006 The so-called resurgence is not a restoration of vitality. It is just the slow crawl back to ordinary levels of activity after a period of deep contraction

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The headlines heralding a rebound in Canadian housing carry a familiar air of triumphalism. 

August marked the fifth consecutive month of sales gains, edging national transactions 1.1 per cent higher on a seasonally adjusted basis and bringing cumulative activity since March to 12.5 per cent. It was the strongest August since 2021. Yet such framing obscures a more sobering reality.

Even after half a year of steady increases, sales remain well below long-term averages, as the Canadian Real Estate Association’s own chart illustrates below. The so-called resurgence is not a restoration of vitality by any means. It is just the slow crawl back to ordinary levels of activity after a period of deep contraction.

 

 

Supply’s ascendancy

 

If there is a true story in CREA’s August release, it is the rise of supply. New listings climbed 2.6 per cent month-over-month, more than double the pace of sales (refer to the chart by Valery below). Active listings stood 8.8 per cent higher than a year earlier, placing inventory squarely in line with historical norms. The sales-to-new listings ratio slipped to 51.2 per cent, beneath its long-term average of 54.9 per cent and a full point lower than in July. The balance has moved further in favour of supply.

 

 

These dynamics do not make for trivial ones. Policymakers and market participants alike must recognise that rising inventories alter the psychology of buyers and sellers. With more choice in the marketplace, prospective purchasers feel less urgency to transact, while vendors face greater competition. This is the mechanism by which price discovery bends downward, not upward, even in the face of incremental sales growth.

 

Prices under pressure

 

The price data reinforce this narrative of fragility. The national Home Price Index (HPI) was virtually unchanged in August, slipping 0.1 per cent from July and standing 3.4 per cent below its level a year earlier. The national average sale price rose 1.8 per cent year-over-year, but this was more a reflection of compositional shifts in where sales occurred than a substantive change in valuations. Benchmark prices remain largely flat since spring, a plateau that conceals persistent downward pressure in many local markets where supply is rising more rapidly than demand.

 

 

Months of inventory at 4.4 still sit slightly below the long-term average of five, a level that, in isolation, suggests modest seller leverage. Yet the trajectory tells a different story. New listings are climbing steadily, and with the seasonal surge of autumn supply we have witnessed, the leverage is already drifting toward buyers.

 

 

The policy lens

 

Much of the market’s trajectory in the coming months hinges on monetary policy. CREA’s economists openly speculated that a September rate cut could entice buyers off the sidelines. Yet such relief, if it arrives, will not erase the structural imbalance created by a surge in supply. Monetary easing may lubricate demand, but it cannot extinguish the additional competition sellers now face.

For governments, the lesson is sharper still. The surge of listings points toward the idea of strain. Investors under pressure from higher carrying costs, owners confronting mortgage renewal shocks, and developers actively working to clear unsold product all contribute to the current flow of listings onto the market. Urbanation recently reported that completed, developer-held condo inventory in the Greater Toronto Area reached a record high in Q2 2025. At the same time, STOREYS quoted major developers pointing to competitive pricing and incentive programs as necessary adaptations in the present market.

Policymakers should be wary of mistaking higher transaction counts for genuine affordability progress. A market that clears at lower prices due to stress-driven listings is a symptom of fragility, not a cure.

 

Outlook

 

The temptation to label August a turning point is strong. After years of volatility, Canadians are eager for signs of stability. Yet the evidence counsels caution. Sales are inching upward but remain subdued by historical standards. Listings are climbing more quickly than demand, shifting the balance of power toward buyers. Prices, meanwhile, are not rebounding; they are treading water under the weight of excess supply.

To call this a comeback is to misunderstand the mechanics of housing markets. Canada’s real estate sector is in a phase of recalibration, not resurgence, as some of my previous pieces allude to. Stakeholders who mistake volume for vitality risk misreading the very forces that will define the months ahead.

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