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China and American trade friction in the front row

January 20th Barack Obama came to power on the eve of a galloping horse, the outgoing U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab held his final press conference. I jokingly asked her at the meeting: “I am very curious point is that, in your office last week, the U.S. will make more trade action against China?” The audience’s laughter, she could not help but smile.

Sino-US economic and trade issues, has been a hot issue in bilateral relations. Schwab may be the vanguard of the United States wielded the big stick. Valentine’s Day in 2007, congressional hearing, she told the U.S. Congress leaders pun said: “(If) you are my lover, I will be your new best friend.” At least in the China issue, Schwab deeds. In her two and a half in office, the United States frequently to China to initiate proceedings in the WTO.

For me the ridicule, Schwab also laughed after quickly excuse: “that the Chinese think the U.S. is too aggressive, but the actual defense of the United States is in their interests, urging China to honor its WTO accession commitments.” Among these, some fall also not lie. China loses WTO ruled on many occasions, should not all discrimination against Chinese, the rough with the relevant policies of China. WTO rules on the “monkey spirit” of the United States, how could you not take advantage of the loopholes in the Chinese launch attack?

In fact, Sino-US trade friction, sometimes from more consideration to take into account the U.S. position on the issue, will also be able to learn more about the U.S. action starting point and purpose, and thus the development of relevant countermeasures. This is also in line with Sun Tzu’s “Know thyself, know yourself.” A general rule, the last two years, the U.S. economy continues to decline, unemployment increased substantially, the rise of trade protectionism began, the huge Chinese trade surplus will naturally become the number one goal of the United States. For another person when the United States trade representative, also would not necessarily Bishiwabu “kind.”

Since the new U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner waving a big stick to seem particularly urgent. For tax evasion when he served as finance minister when the issue has not been allowed on the currency issue has taken offensive. He said that Barack Obama believes that China had manipulated the renminbi exchange rate, Obama will vigorously use “all diplomatic means”, for China to change its exchange rate policy.

I carefully read the original words of the reply given Geithner’s letter, although a few words in the entire 120-page letter to the proportion of small, but there is a lot, “refreshing.” Because although the Bush administration had always put pressure on renminbi appreciation, but the U.S. Treasury Department has refused to China a “currency manipulator.” Now touch a Obama administration took office, he came a “played rough.” Once China was designated as “currency manipulator”, and that the United States in accordance with the law must sanction a trade war between the two countries will be endless.

Geithner is the “impulse” it? Some media tend to think so. However, I do not think so, would not regard such Geithner Chinese “Lengtou Qing.” In fact, if he and Obama stand on the Government’s point of view, a promising Geithner Obama would “round it” factor; the other is to test the response of the parties.

If that is round, because the time when Senator Obama says that China’s currency manipulation. If you became president, soon changed to say China is not manipulating the exchange rate, is clearly not in line with political practice, political opponents also accused Obama of “political chameleon” was. Thus, even back to the Bush administration’s stance on the currency issue, the Obama administration have to have a “turn” of the time and process.

Is tentative, as if thrown hard to test to test the Chinese position, test the test the U.S. response to the industry, to test the tentative attitude of the United States Congress, the ruling should be the beginning of Obama’s basic point. China’s strong reaction from the present to the American media generally agreed that the “unwise”, the U.S. government and will have a basis for policy adjustment. Of course, if the performance of the Chinese attitude of uncertainty, then would the United States have taken further advantage of the opportunity to continue to wild speculations.

Therefore, Geithner’s argument that China’s reaction should be strong, so that the United States clearly and unequivocally clear China’s position, in particular, to let him know that stir up the issue of RMB against the U.S. nowhere.
But the Chinese have a good grasp of a tone, that is, the beginning of Obama administration, the RMB exchange rate is an issue, but not a be a problem. At least at the United States needs China’s case, the dispute over the RMB exchange rate, or to provoke a trade war, will not the U.S. interests; China need not make so many concessions on other issues.

But Geithner’s speech, perhaps a signal, at least in the context of economic crisis, the next few years, Sino-US economic and trade relations will not be plain sailing. However, without splitting the best interests of both countries, how to fight without breaking, you need the parties to use their brains. Geithner’s remarks test is a way, China’s strong reaction Hezu is a way.

Of course, friction is not always a bad thing. Schwab has been to teach on the University said to me, in fact, China’s U.S. lawsuit from going to school to many, this is not the last two years, China has also begun proceedings in the WTO the United States. “To reciprocate,” Schwab quite appreciated from the look of view, the Chinese firm and timely, but also help to win the respect of competitors.

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