I was a third-year real estate agent, and my market, Edmonton, had front-row seats to the fall in oil prices from historic highs to brutal lows in just a few months. Alberta’s economy tumbled, the housing market followed it down, and I was sure my business was in jeopardy.
That downturn lasted longer than anyone hoped. From 2015 to 2021, Edmonton was a buyer’s market as prices slid thousands of dollars, inventory stacked up, and apartment-style condos got the shortest end of the stick. The market was rough, and there were 40 per cent fewer transactions for any agent; many left the industry or picked up day jobs. I felt the pressure and now I know how pressure makes diamonds.
In the first six months of 2015, I sold 10 houses a month (60 transactions in six months) because I was forced to learn that markets don’t create or remove opportunities; they just shift where the opportunities live. Here are the lessons that stuck with me.
Decode your market
It’s not just a buyer’s market; the impact varies by price point, and it hits people who bought last year differently than those who bought five years ago. Using tools like a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis, we saw that owners who bought five years earlier were in a stronger equity position than those who bought the year before. We also saw that condo and townhouse owners were more affected, as they tended to be less established, and luxury was more affected due to fewer qualified move-up buyers at higher ranges. By understanding the spectrum of impact, we could see who was positioned to win.
Visualize the wins
When the market is hot, wins are plentiful and visible — more like checkers. In a down market, the wins take multiple moves — more like chess. Buyers have the advantage in a buyer’s market, and when someone is selling and buying, the buy can outweigh the sell. Every upgrader was likely to save more on the higher-priced purchase than they would lose on the lower-priced sale. At the top end, thinner buyer pools can widen that spread, which is why calm, evidence-based guidance is a differentiator.
It turns out the challenge wasn’t math; it was fear. People were scared of what they’d heard about the market and what friends would think if they sold in a downturn. What they needed most was a knowledgeable guide to help them see that the down market offered opportunities for those with equity.
Move-up math
How a 10 per cent slide can favour buyers trading up
Sell: $1.8-million home at 10 per cent loss→ – $180,000
Buy: $2.4-million home at 10 per cent discount → – $240,000
Net position: +$60,000 on the trade (before financing, carrying costs and taxes)
Why it works: In softer markets, thinner buyer pools at higher price points can widen the spread. Calm, evidence-based guidance helps clients see the upside.
Selling in a market that doesn’t want to buy
To unlock the win on the purchase, we had to sell the first property. That meant understanding the market appetite and guiding sellers to solve the market for the highest price. Again, it started with analysis.
If the market had one buyer for every three sellers, you couldn’t be second or third — let alone fifth — in a field crowded with inventory. Most competing listings started five per cent over market, then reduced slowly over a two-month period. Any property that sat more than 60 days without a price change was irrelevant to buyers.
Our clients made better decisions out of the gate, set better prices and had better outcomes. Buyers responded more readily to a listing priced to sell on opening weekend, rather than one that inched down over weeks.
We laid out worst-case scenarios up front, set clear goals and helped people with unrealistic expectations see that this market wasn’t for them.
Spoiled for choice
Once the sale property went pending, we moved to the buy — a better position, with its own challenges. Buyers saw options everywhere, looked for big discounts and had plenty of leverage. The market looked full of deals, but they were harder to find. The risks were decision paralysis and overpaying.
Through testing, we found buyers did better with strong reference points before the first showing. We created a blueprint meeting to build a blueprint for success. It showed the true frequency of opportunities that matched what they wanted — replacing the myth that “thousands of listings” meant unlimited choice. It’s not a game of selection; it’s a game of elimination. You eliminate all but the best option.
We also played the long game. When a listing was new and overpriced, we waited through the price adjustments — and a little longer — to let the seller see the market wasn’t responding. Using time well was a key factor in successful negotiations.
It wasn’t rocket science. It was patience, pattern recognition, and a refusal to get distracted by the noise.
The bigger picture
If you can’t see the wins available in your market, it’s hard to be valuable to people in your marketplace. We can’t look at the market like an ocean with giant waves and stay on the beach. We have to adapt. If there’s wind, we sail; if there are waves, we surf — but we accept we’re getting wet either way.
Taylor Hack is an international keynote speaker, cohost of The Leads are $hit Podcast, and leader of HACK&CO at RE/MAX River City; the highest-reviewed team in the Greater Edmonton Area on RankMyAgent.com. Most of Taylor’s 20-year industry experience has been in the top 1 per cent of RE/MAX globally, whether his market has been hot or cold. Taylor is a devoted girl dad, Formula One fanatic, and he believes you miss 100 per cent of the dogs you don’t pet.
